Key Stats for Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock
- 2025 Price Change for Chipotle stock: -35%
- $CMG Share Price as of Jan. 3: $37
- 52-Week High: $60
- $CMG Stock Price Target: $43
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What Happened?
Chipotle (CMG) stock experienced a brutal selloff in 2025, dropping almost 50% through November, which included a 19% single-day decline after its Q3 earnings report.
The restaurant chain has now cut its full-year same-store sales forecast for the third consecutive quarter, sending investors running for the exits.
The problems started earlier in the year when consumer sentiment declined sharply. Chipotle saw fewer customers visiting, across all income levels, but the pain hit hardest among lower- and middle-income diners.
Households earning under $100,000 annually, which represent about 40% of Chipotle’s total sales, have been pulling back significantly. They’re not switching to competitors. They’re just eating at home more often due to concerns about the economy and inflation.
One group has been particularly hard hit: customers aged 25 to 35. This demographic accounts for roughly 25% of Chipotle’s sales, and they’re facing multiple headwinds, including higher unemployment, increased student loan payments, and slower wage growth.
Unfortunately for Chipotle, this age group accounts for a larger share of its customer base than of the broader restaurant industry.
The third quarter brought more bad news. Same-store sales rose just 0.3%, and traffic declined. For the full year, management now expects same-store sales to decline by a low single digit. Even worse, trends deteriorated further in October after the quarter ended.
CEO Scott Boatwright explained on the earnings call that the promotional environment has intensified throughout the year, with competitors leaning heavily on value pricing and menu innovation.
While Chipotle’s average meal still costs around $10, many consumers mistakenly believe it’s closer to $15, lumping the chain in with pricier fast-casual peers.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About CMG Stock
Wall Street reacted harshly to the news. At least five analysts slashed their price targets for CMG stock following the earnings report.
- Citi’s Jon Tower cut his target from $54 to $44, noting “it’s difficult to call a bottom for sales given the multitude of factors weighing on demand.”
- BTIG analyst Pete Saleh expressed surprise at how quickly traffic weakened, saying he’s “not convinced affordability concerns are the main driver here.”
- Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo voiced concern that “the menu and marketing actions taken so far have not sufficiently offset the traffic retraction.”
However, most analysts still attribute the slowdown to industrywide challenges rather than Chipotle-specific problems. Bank of America’s Sara Senatore wrote that “the brand remains fundamentally healthy” and expects “a return to growth as the macro improves.”
The data support this view, as Chipotle has maintained a stable wallet share, indicating it’s not losing customers to competitors. The issue is simply that its core customer base is dining out less often.
Notably, the company is accelerating its marketing spend, launching new menu items like Red Chimichurri sauce and Carne Asada, and reimagining its loyalty rewards program.
Chipotle also plans to roll out 3 to 4 limited-time protein offerings in 2026, up from the historical pace of 2 per year. The company has found that customers who purchase limited-time offers increase their spending and visit frequency over the following year.
On the operations side, Chipotle is rolling out a high-efficiency equipment package across its restaurants over the next three years.
Early results show improved food quality, better guest satisfaction scores, and higher labor efficiency. The company is also retraining staff and adjusting bonus incentives to focus more on digital order accuracy and guest experience.
For 2026, management expects to open 350 to 370 new restaurants, maintaining its aggressive expansion plans. The company still believes it can reach 7,000 North American locations in the long term and expand internationally in markets such as South Korea, Singapore, and the Middle East.
The weakness in CMG stock has ripple effects across the fast-casual dining sector. Shares of competitors Sweetgreen and Cava both dropped 6-8% following Chipotle’s earnings report, and both companies were scheduled to report their own third-quarter results shortly after.
Despite the current challenges, Chipotle’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. The company still generates strong cash flow, maintains industry-leading unit economics with new restaurant returns around 60%, and operates with no debt.
Management expressed confidence that by improving restaurant execution, enhancing value communication, and accelerating menu innovation, Chipotle will return to positive transaction growth and mid-single-digit comparable sales over time.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
