Key Stats for Iren Stock
- 2025 Price Change for Iren stock: 300%
- $IREN Share Price as of Jan. 3: $43
- 52-Week High: $77
- $IREN Stock Price Target: $87
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What Happened?
Iren (IREN) stock has been one of 2025’s biggest winners, delivering over 300% returns as the company successfully transformed from a Bitcoin miner into an AI cloud infrastructure powerhouse.
The surge accelerated dramatically recently after Iren announced a massive $9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft, validating its strategic pivot and setting up explosive revenue growth through 2026.
The Microsoft deal is a game-changer. Under the five-year agreement, Iren will deploy 76,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs across 200 megawatts of data centers at its Childress, Texas campus.
The contract includes a 20% upfront prepayment of roughly $1.9 billion, covering about one-third of GPU capital expenditures. When fully operational, this single deal is expected to generate $1.94 billion in annual recurring revenue with project EBITDA margins around 85%.
Beyond Microsoft, Iren reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, demonstrating continued momentum.
Revenue reached $240 million, up 28% quarter-over-quarter and 355% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA hit $92 million despite higher payroll taxes from the surging stock price.
The company’s AI cloud segment is scaling rapidly, with over 11,000 of its 23,000 GPUs already contracted and strong demand for the remaining capacity.
Iren’s expansion plans are aggressive but achievable. Management announced it will scale from 23,000 GPUs today to 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026. This includes the 76,000 GPUs for Microsoft, plus an additional 40,000 GPUs across its Canadian facilities in Mackenzie and Canal Flats.
When fully deployed, this expansion should support approximately $3.4 billion in total annualized run rate revenue, a massive jump from current levels.
The company’s vertically integrated model is a key competitive advantage. Iren develops its own sites, builds its own high-voltage infrastructure, operates its own data centers, and deploys its own GPUs.
This eliminates dependence on third-party colocation providers and removes counterparty risk. CEO Daniel Roberts emphasized that this control enables faster GPU deployments with better uptime, resulting in superior customer service and reliability.
Iren’s power costs average just $0.03845 per kilowatt-hour, among the lowest globally, giving it a significant margin advantage over competitors.
The company has secured 3 gigawatts of total power capacity, and the Microsoft deal, along with additional expansion, will consume only about 16% of that capacity. This leaves substantial room for future growth without needing new power agreements.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About IREN Stock
The Microsoft contract validates Iren’s ability to serve the world’s largest technology companies. As Roberts noted on the earnings call, proving they can meet hyperscale requirements with their proprietary data center design has enormous strategic value.
The deal demonstrates that Iren’s vertically integrated platform can deliver the performance, reliability, and scale that trillion-dollar companies demand.
The return profile on the Microsoft deal is compelling. CFO Anthony Lewis detailed that the cloud business generates unlevered internal rates of return in the low double digits after accounting for an arm’s-length colocation charge to the data centers.
With targeted leverage of $2.5 billion secured against the GPUs and contracted cash flows, levered IRRs reach 25% to 30%. If Iren can secure $3 billion in GPU financing, those returns increase by another 10%.
These economics explain why Iren prefers cloud deals over pure colocation. The 20% Microsoft prepayment funds one-third of GPU’s capital costs upfront, compared to selling equity to fund colocation buildouts.
Roberts pointed out that with 35%+ levered IRRs against Microsoft’s credit rating, “you kind of do that every day of the week.”
Despite the massive rally, Iren’s stock still offers upside based on the revenue growth trajectory. Revenue is expected to triple from $501 million in fiscal 2025 to roughly $1.5 billion by 2027. Even if the valuation multiple compresses from its current 11x revenue to a more modest 8x, the stock price could exceed $50, representing nearly 100% upside from current levels.
Iren’s history shows extreme volatility, with a 95% drop from its 2021 peak to 2022 low. While the company has pivoted to AI, Bitcoin mining still accounts for 97% of its current revenue.
A prolonged Bitcoin price decline below $80,000 could severely impact cash flow and jeopardize expansion plans. Iren also faces intense competition from hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which are building their own infrastructure, which could compress margins.
Execution risk on Iren’s massive data center projects is significant. Any construction delays or equipment delivery problems could hurt revenue projections and investor confidence.
The company must also navigate rapid hardware obsolescence in AI, requiring continuous capital investment to stay competitive with the latest GPU generations.
But the market is clearly betting on management’s track record. As Roberts emphasized, “we have never missed a construction or commissioning date in our life as a listed company.”
With Sweetwater 1 energization on schedule for April 2026 and strong customer demand across all sites, Iren appears positioned to capitalize on the trillion-dollar wave of AI infrastructure investment.
Iren stock has delivered life-changing returns in 2025, and the Microsoft deal provides a clear path to sustained growth through 2026 and beyond.
For investors comfortable with volatility and execution risk, this transformed Bitcoin miner-turned AI infrastructure provider offers a compelling way to play the AI compute boom, with attractive unit economics and massive expansion potential.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
