Key Stats for Super Micro Computer Stock
- Current Price: $43.26
- Target Price (Mid): ~$89
- Street Target: ~$42 (12-month mean)
- Potential Total Return: ~105%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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What Happened?
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) began shipping Nvidia (NVDA) Vera Rubin NVL72 racks on September 23, 2026. Two sessions later, on September 25, shares closed at $43.26, up 4.22%, though Benzinga tied that day’s premarket gain to improving risk appetite. As of that close, the stock was up 47.8% since the end of 2025 and above the $42.38 mean analyst target.
President and CEO Charles Liang said in the announcement, “We have spent years building the liquid-cooling stack, the manufacturing capacity, and the deployment teams for exactly this moment.” Consensus has fiscal 2027 revenue, for the year ending June 2027, rising about 72%, while normalized earnings per share rise only about 20%.
Why a 72% Revenue Year Adds Only About 20% to EPS
Super Micro earned $1.70 in non-GAAP EPS in the June quarter on a 17.6% non-GAAP gross margin, and management said on its August 11 earnings call that the mix benefited partly from deferring several contracts into fiscal 2027. At a September 10 Goldman Sachs conference, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development Michael Staiger said some contracts that potentially carried over from the prior quarter put pressure on the September-quarter outlook.
For the September quarter, management guided gross margin to 10.4% to 10.8% and non-GAAP EPS to $1.01 to $1.10. Consensus EPS for that quarter is around $1.04, and consensus full-year gross margin is near 10%, below fiscal 2026’s non-GAAP 10.9%.
Margins explain only part of the 72%-to-20% gap, since consensus normalized net income rises about 37%. A larger share count absorbs the rest. June’s financing sold common stock at $27.50 and mandatory convertible preferred shares that convert into common stock by 2029, and set up an at-the-market program for up to $1.25 billion more.
Staiger dismissed the worry that large neocloud customers will lean more on lower-cost Taiwanese manufacturers: “that concern was around at $7 billion at $15 billion at $22 billion, at $39 billion, and it’s going to exist at $68 billion.” Those figures track annual revenue from fiscal 2023 through 2026, so his answer speaks to volume and leaves pricing open.
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Cash Still Lags Growth, and Management Says Self-Funding Takes Time
Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 77.8% to $39.06 billion, while free cash flow was negative $6.97 billion. Staiger acknowledged that “the capital intensity has been high,” and consensus still has fiscal 2027 free cash flow at around negative $1.3 billion before turning positive in fiscal 2028.
Staiger said the company aims to “become self-funded downstream” and “get back to a point where we can return capital to shareholders,” adding, “It’s probably going to be a little while because the growth right now is pretty extraordinary.”
The export-control overhang has narrowed but not closed. On August 20, the board’s independent review found no evidence that current senior management knew of the alleged diversion scheme, a U.S. case in which Super Micro was not named a defendant. On August 24, Taiwanese prosecutors indicted nine people, including two employees of Super Micro’s Taiwan unit; the company called them former employees and said the arrests followed its cooperation with authorities, and government investigations continue.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $43.26
- Target Price (Mid): ~$89
- Potential Total Return: ~105%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case projects around $89 per share by June 30, 2031, a total return of about 105% from $43.26, or roughly 16% a year over 4.8 years. Revenue rests on turning the roughly $60 billion order book into Vera Rubin and other rack shipments, and on widening sales to enterprise and sovereign buyers. The margin driver is mix, which Liang tied to “a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption” of its building block solutions.
The primary risk is dilution, because negative cash flow and the at-the-market program can keep lifting the share count. Upside comes if gross margin holds above the roughly 10% full-year consensus as Vera Rubin volume ramps. The downside comes if the full-year gross margin settles below that level while the share count keeps rising.
Conclusion
The September-quarter report is the next checkpoint; the prior-year equivalent came on November 4, 2025. Gross margin at or above 10.8% with non-GAAP EPS above $1.10 would suggest the 20% earnings estimate is too low. A margin below 10.4%, or operating cash flow turning negative again after June’s positive $747 million, would point to a rally that has priced in revenue the company cannot yet convert into cash.
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Should You Invest in Super Micro Computer?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
