Key Takeaways
- BTIG reiterated its Buy rating and $250 price target on Strategy on Oct. 30, 77% above the last close, the day after Strategy reported a record $20.91 billion gain on its bitcoin.
- Wall Street’s average target has fallen from $554 a year ago to $239, and it still sits 69% above the price.
- Each Strategy share holds 3.7% less bitcoin than it did at the start of 2026, because the stock trades below management’s own break-even for selling shares to buy bitcoin.
- BTIG’s target depends on a bitcoin rally and leaves out the shrinking bitcoin per share, so the call looks early until that number grows again.
Strategy (MSTR) just reported the biggest quarterly profit in its history, and its stock is still down 49% from its high a year ago.
Analyst Andrew Harte of BTIG reiterated his Buy rating and $250 price target on Oct. 30, the day after the report, for 77% upside.
Bitcoin sank, then the preferred stock broke
Bitcoin fell from its 2025 high of $126,296 to about $58,700 by June 30, 2026.
Then STRC, Strategy’s 12% preferred stock, fell below its $100 stated amount in late May and into the $70s on June 26. Strategy stopped selling it and has spent $2.04 billion buying STRC back this year. In October, MSCI’s new index rule hit the stock too, and MSCI names the companies it will drop on Nov. 11.
Bitcoin’s rebound to about $83,600 by Sept. 30 brought a $20.91 billion gain and diluted EPS of $44.75 for the third quarter.
BTIG hasn’t budged
BTIG has kept its $250 target since at least April.
Management agrees. “We’re at the beginning of the next bitcoin bull market,” Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said in the release. CEO Phong Le added on the call that the stock trades at 1.15 times the value of Strategy’s bitcoin, compared with medians of 2.28 to 2.60 in the 2021, 2023 and 2024 bull markets.
TIKR tracks 15 analysts on Strategy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Strategy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Strategy’s Analyst Ratings
Does $250 add up?
Wall Street’s average target has fallen from $554 a year ago to $239:
Fifteen analysts cover Strategy, and their targets run from $165 to $435.
Earnings estimates just follow bitcoin, so bitcoin per share tells you more.
“We’re going to double Bitcoin per share over the course of the next 7 years,” Le said on the call. So far this year, it’s down 3.7%.
In May, management said selling stock to buy bitcoin only pays off when the stock trades above 1.22 times the value of its bitcoin. At 1.15, each new share sold for bitcoin lowers bitcoin per share.
The main risk: holders can make Strategy buy back $5.9 billion of its convertible notes for cash starting in September 2027.
BTIG’s $250 can work if bitcoin keeps climbing and the premium comes back. But the target doesn’t account for the shrinking bitcoin per share. I’d want to see bitcoin per share growing again before betting on a 77% rebound.
MSCI’s Nov. 11 list and Strategy’s first new STRC sale will show whether that can happen.
So what is Strategy stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Strategy could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
