Key Takeaways
- Vistra is down 17% in 2026 because Texas power prices stayed weak and Texas elected a governor who wants to pause new data centers.
- Constellation Energy has fallen even further this year, so part of the drop is a selloff across AI-power stocks, but Texas is Vistra’s own problem.
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA jumped more than 50%, and Vistra’s first 2027 range of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion comes with about 98% of next year’s output already hedged.
- At about 14x forward earnings, just under its five-year average of about 15x, the stock looks like it bottomed on Nov. 5, though only about 78% of 2028 is hedged.
Vistra (VST) is down 17% in 2026 through the Nov. 11 close. It closed at a 52-week low of $112.89 on Nov. 5, two days after Texas elected a governor who wants to pause new data centers. Its third-quarter report the next morning sent the stock up 10.6% and gives good reason to think that was the bottom.
Constellation Energy (CEG) is down 22% this year, so part of this is a selloff across AI-power stocks. But Vistra’s own problem has been Texas.
Texas did the damage
It started with power prices. On Vistra’s second-quarter call on Aug. 7, CEO Jim Burke said Texas wholesale power had run at 30amegawatt-houryeartodateandadded:“30 is not going to get new stuff built.” On Aug. 3, Gov. Greg Abbott had frozen grid-connection approvals for data centers until state regulators and ERCOT finish an audit.
October brought some relief. On Oct. 5, the Energy Department announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion for Vistra’s nuclear upgrades in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Constellation signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Google the next day.
On Nov. 3, Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race on a platform that included pausing new data centers. KeyBanc cut Vistra to Sector Weight from Overweight the next morning, and the stock fell 13.8%.
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The business went the other way
Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $2.38 billion in the third quarter, up from $1.58 billion a year earlier. Vistra raised the midpoint of its 2026 range and gave its first 2027 range: $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.
In August, management said 2027 was trending toward the low end of its old $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion range. That range left out about $700 million from the Cogentrix deal and Meta’s nuclear contracts. Add that to the low end, and you get the new $8.1 billion midpoint, so weak Texas prices were already in the outlook.
Analysts kept expecting EBITDA to climb through 2028 even as the stock slid:
Analysts’ $7.94 billion for 2027 sits inside the new range, so the guidance gives them little reason to cut.
By Oct. 30, Vistra had hedged about 98% of its expected 2027 generation. That leaves the new governor, who takes office Jan. 19, little room to reprice it. Cogentrix added about 5,500 MW of gas plants, all but 583 MW of them outside Texas.
Burke said on the Nov. 6 call that “the pacing was already being impacted ahead of the election, but our plans have always had a more conservative view of the AI build-out.” And the board added $1.5 billion to the buyback.
Cheap enough to call it a bottom
Vistra trades at about 14x forward earnings, just under its five-year average of about 15x and far below the 37x it hit in August 2025:
At that multiple, investors are paying for plants Vistra runs and contracts it has signed. CFO Kristopher Moldovan expects adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to rise about 70% from 2027 to 2030 without assuming a rebound in power prices. That outlook assumes about $3 billion a year of buybacks.
The consensus target has slipped to $203 from $225 a year ago, but it’s still about 52% above the Nov. 11 close:
The risk is 2028. Only about 78% of that year’s output was hedged by Oct. 30, and Comanche Peak still has 1,200 MW of nuclear capacity without a long-term buyer.
Nov. 5 looks like the bottom. Investors sold Vistra as if its plan depended on a Texas data center boom, and it never did. The fourth-quarter report, likely in late February, will show whether weak Texas prices start to hurt 2028.
So what is Vistra stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
