Key Takeaways
- BMO Capital kept its Outperform rating and $35 price target on D-Wave Quantum after third-quarter results, while several other firms cut theirs.
- The stock is 67% below its December 2025 closing high after a year of revenue misses, a CFO exit, a rival buying its chip foundry and a widening loss.
- BMO’s $35 implies about 160x forward sales, above D-Wave’s three-year average of 153x, and analysts expect a bigger 2027 loss than they did a year ago.
- The target asks for too much, too soon. Fourth-quarter results, likely in late February, will show whether D-Wave’s promised system deliveries came through.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) sits 67% below its December 2025 closing high, and a string of analysts cut their price targets after the company’s Nov. 10 third-quarter report. BMO Capital didn’t: on Nov. 11, analyst Harsh Kumar kept his Outperform rating and $35 target, about 229% above that day’s $10.65 close.
A year of misses
Revenue missed consensus in each of the three quarters through June, and first-half 2026 revenue fell 67% to $5.9 million, from $18.1 million. In July, rival IonQ closed its purchase of SkyWater, the foundry that makes D-Wave’s chips. Then in late August, CFO John Markovich announced his retirement, and a shareholder class action followed.
In the Nov. 10 report, revenue rose 21% to $4.5 million, ahead of estimates, but the company posted a GAAP loss of $0.13 a share, bookings fell 19% to $1.9 million, and GAAP operating expenses jumped 84% to $55.9 million.
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BMO isn’t budging
Kumar initiated coverage at Outperform with a $35 target in August, arguing that “D-Wave is best positioned in the quantum space to have commercial success.” He held there on Nov. 11 while Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $31, and Stifel, Jefferies, Mizuho and Evercore ISI also lowered theirs. Bookings for the first nine months of 2026 were $37.4 million, up 611%, and acting CFO Greg Golkov said D-Wave expects to deliver Florida Atlantic University’s $20 million system and “recognize a substantial portion of the related revenue in the fourth quarter.”
But take out that order, a $10 million Fortune 100 license and orders acquired with Quantum Circuits, and nine-month bookings were about $5.1 million, against $5.3 million a year earlier.
Does $35 add up?
As of Nov. 10, before the post-earnings cuts, TIKR’s consensus target was $32, within a range of $18.36 to $43. That was already down from $37 a year earlier and the lowest of the past year:
Analysts expect revenue to nearly double each year, from $42.4 million in 2026 to $148 million in 2028:
D-Wave expects to turn only about $22.6 million of its $38.3 million backlog into revenue over the next 12 months. Yet with about $10.4 million of revenue through September, hitting the 2026 estimate takes roughly $32 million in the fourth quarter alone. And analysts now see a 2027 loss of $0.38 a share, against $0.24 a year ago.
At the Nov. 10 close, D-Wave traded at 48x forward sales, far below its three-year average of 153x:
BMO’s $35 implies about 160x, above that average and near the 163x it carried at the end of June.
The fourth quarter is the real test
D-Wave had $503.4 million of cash and marketable securities at Sept. 30, but it has sold plenty of stock before: its diluted share count roughly tripled from 2022 to mid-2026.
Kumar may be right that D-Wave has the best shot at selling quantum computing today. But at $35, investors would be paying more than the stock’s three-year average multiple for a business whose losses are widening, and that’s too much, too soon. Florida Atlantic University’s machine and D-Wave’s first 17-qubit gate-model system are both due by year-end. Fourth-quarter results, likely in late February, will show whether they arrived on time, and revenue near $32 million would make BMO’s case far easier to defend.
So what is D-Wave Quantum stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
