Key Takeaways
- Vistra stock has lost nearly 25% over the past year, but Siebert Williams Shank kept its Buy rating and $202 target on Nov. 13, 50% above Thursday’s close.
- Falling Texas power prices hurt first, then the election of a governor who campaigned on a data center moratorium.
- Vistra’s 2027 outlook held up, but $202 needs a multiple well above today’s while Texas policy is unsettled.
Vistra (VST) has lost nearly 25% over the past year, and Siebert Williams Shank isn’t budging. On Nov. 13, the firm kept its Buy rating and $202 price target, 50% above Thursday’s close of $134.51.
Texas Voters Rattled Vistra Stock
Texas was a problem before the election. On the third-quarter call, CEO Jim Burke blamed falling ERCOT power prices on crypto miners going offline to become data centers and on the state’s data center audit and permitting pause. “We do not see this as a long-term impact,” he said.
Then Gina Hinojosa won the Nov. 3 governor’s race after campaigning on a moratorium on new data centers, and the stock sank after the vote. It closed at $112.89 on Nov. 5, its lowest close of the past year.
Siebert Held While Others Cut
Siebert analyst Gabriele Sorbara set the $202 target when the firm initiated coverage at Buy on Oct. 2 and has kept it through the election and the quarter. Since the vote, BMO cut its target to $188 from $210, and CIBC and Scotiabank cut theirs to $175 and $169.
The bull case rests on Vistra’s own numbers. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose more than 50% to $2.38 billion, and 2027 guidance calls for $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, with about 98% of next year’s output already hedged.
Does $202 Add Up?
The average analyst target is now $202, the same as Siebert’s. It was $228 a year ago and peaked at $234 in March:
Analysts expect normalized EPS to jump to $8.55 this year from $4.76 in 2025, then reach $10.55 in 2028:
That leaves the multiple. Vistra trades at about 14x forward earnings, near its 5-year average of 15x and far below its August 2025 peak of 37x:
A year from now, forward earnings will be mostly 2028’s $10.55, so $202 implies about 19x. That’s close to Vistra’s 3-year average of about 18x, but it’s a big step up from 14x.
TIKR Tracks 23 Analysts on Vistra. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Vistra, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Vistra’s Analyst Ratings
Texas Has to Settle First
The main risk is 2028. Only about 78% of Vistra’s output for that year is hedged, so a long Texas freeze on new data centers could still hurt earnings.
I think Vistra is worth more than $134, with 2027 largely locked in. But $202 within a year needs investors to pay a 3-year-average multiple again, and I don’t see that before Hinojosa spells out what her moratorium covers. She takes office on Jan. 19, and Vistra’s fourth-quarter report, expected in late February, should show how much more of 2028 it has hedged.
So What Is Vistra Stock Actually Worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Vistra could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
