Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 target on Nov. 13, 116% above Friday’s close, with the stock 31% below its June closing high.
- Starship’s booster missed its catch hours later, though the ship reached orbit.
- At $300, SpaceX would trade near today’s multiple on 2028 estimates, so the target hinges on those estimates holding.
SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $139.11 on Friday, Nov. 13, 31% below its June closing high and 3% above its $135 IPO price. That morning, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 price target, 116% above that close.
SpaceX Keeps Spending More
Revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion in the third quarter, led by cloud deals in SpaceX’s Super Intelligence (SI) segment. But capex hit $19.6 billion, more than revenue, and CFO Bret Johnsen guided the fourth quarter to $35 billion to $40 billion. On Nov. 12, SpaceX added plans for more than $74 billion of data centers in Texas and Arizona, and Bloomberg reported that SpaceX and Tesla are progressing in merger talks, with a deal possible as soon as December.
Jonas’s Catalyst Is Still in Orbit
Jonas called a successful ship catch “one of the most significant potential catalysts in SpaceX’s nearly 25-year history.” That test was still ahead after Friday’s launch. SpaceX called off the booster’s tower catch and it burst into flames in the Gulf, while the ship reached orbit, deployed 26 Starlink satellites and was set to try its catch on Saturday. Shares fell 2% after hours.
Reusability matters most for its Connectivity segment, mostly Starlink, which earned $2.37 billion of SpaceX’s $2.79 billion third-quarter operating income.
In an October note, with the stock near $159, Jonas said shares would test $100 within 12 months only after a clear AI slowdown, a severe Starship setback or a material dilutive event.
Does $300 Add Up?
Analysts are moving his way. On Oct. 23, consensus normalized EPS was -$0.30 for 2026 and $2.50 for 2027. Now it’s $0.17 this year, $2.74 in 2027 and $5.99 in 2028:
The consensus target has followed, to $256 from $188 in late June, 84% above Friday’s close:
The multiple isn’t the problem. SpaceX trades at about 51x 2027 EPS today, and $300 would be about 50x 2028 EPS. Jonas doesn’t need a re-rating. He needs that $5.99 to hold.
TIKR Tracks 40 Analysts on SpaceX. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SpaceX, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SpaceX’s Analyst Ratings
SpaceX Still Has to Pay for the Build
That’s the weak spot. One SI customer brought in 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, and the prospectus says the Anthropic contract lets either side leave on 90 days’ notice. Analysts also expect negative free cash flow of $261.9 billion from 2026 through 2028. About $35 billion of that was spent by Sept. 30, which leaves roughly $227 billion to fund against $89.9 billion of cash and securities.
SpaceX can borrow, as it did with $25 billion of notes in June, or sell stock, the dilutive event Jonas says could send shares toward $100. With a booster still to prove and that gap to fund, $300 within a year looks too optimistic. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 is the test: whether December revenue hit SpaceX’s $100 billion annualized goal, and how it paid for a $35 billion to $40 billion quarter.
So What Is SpaceX Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
