Key Takeaways
- Scott Galloway expects Anthropic’s Nov. 19 debut to open 15% to 40% above its IPO price.
- A pop would lift Alphabet’s and Amazon’s stakes; earlier mark-ups more than tripled their second-quarter profits.
- Investors look past those gains: Alphabet trades at 21x normalized forward earnings.
- The bigger win is Anthropic funding its computing bills, including $121 billion committed to Google.
Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) are about to get a public price on a huge investment.
Anthropic will price its IPO on Nov. 18 and start trading as “ANT” the next day. Its amended S-1 sets a range of $70 to $78 a share, a fully diluted value of about $1.26 trillion to $1.40 trillion. Bloomberg reports it’s multiple times oversubscribed.
NYU Stern professor Scott Galloway asked one of the deal’s banks for as many shares as it can get him. On Pivot, he explained: “I don’t know where the stock’s going to be in a year. I’m fairly certain the first trade is 15 to 40% higher than the pricing.”
Alphabet and Amazon Have Been Here Before
Each higher Anthropic round showed up in their net income as a gain. NewEdge Wealth’s Cameron Dawson said on Bloomberg Surveillance that Anthropic and SpaceX gains “were massive drivers of earnings upside in 1Q and 2Q of 2026.”
Alphabet earned $112 billion in the second quarter, against $28.2 billion a year earlier. A $99.0 billion gain on equity securities made up $6.26 of its $9.11 of EPS. The third quarter went the other way: an $8.7 billion loss cut EPS by $0.55. Over nine months, Alphabet booked $127.3 billion of net equity gains, more than its $121.0 billion of operating income.
Amazon’s second quarter included $53.4 billion of pre-tax other income, primarily from Anthropic, and net income more than tripled to $62.6 billion:
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What a Pop Would Add
Anthropic’s May funding round valued it at $965 billion. Dawson called a $1.1 trillion debut “an uplift to somebody like Google,” but the range already starts higher. A 15% to 40% pop would put the first trade at roughly $1.45 trillion to $1.97 trillion, 50% to 104% above the May round.
Alphabet doesn’t disclose its stake’s size. It’s also among the companies buying $26 billion of Anthropic stock at the IPO price in a private placement, so a pop marks those shares up on day one too.
The catch: a listed stake is valued at the Dec. 31 price, while Galloway plans to sell on the first trade.
Investors Already Look Past the Gains
A paper gain doesn’t sell one more ad. On normalized forward earnings, which leave those gains out, Alphabet trades at 21x, below its three-year average of 23x:
A pop flatters the GAAP P/E, not the multiple investors pay.
Why Anthropic’s IPO Matters More to Google Cloud and AWS
Galloway also said “Anthropic can’t have a broken IPO.” Its amended S-1 lists $900.9 billion of committed spending, mostly compute and infrastructure, with $70.7 billion due in the 12 months after Sept. 30. Google’s share is $121 billion, and Amazon sells Anthropic computing through AWS.
At the $74 midpoint, Anthropic expects about $84.6 billion of net proceeds from the IPO and placement, more than the $70.7 billion due by next September. Google would supply about $10 billion of it.
That’s the real good news. A pop helps one quarter; a well-funded Anthropic pays Google Cloud and AWS for years. And if the stock slides before Dec. 31, the gain shrinks, as Alphabet’s third quarter showed.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
