Key Takeaways
- Venture Global shares jumped 6.3% after Reuters reported that QatarEnergy is in advanced talks to buy at least 3 million metric tons of LNG a year from Venture Global on a long-term deal.
- A signed deal would add a major long-term buyer, but its effect on estimates depends on pricing, delivery timing and which volumes it covers.
- Venture Global had already contracted 91% of its 2026 cargos, and analysts expect revenue to reach $22.5 billion by 2028.
- The stock traded at 7.9x forward earnings at Thursday’s close, below its one-year average of 9.0x, and neither company has confirmed the talks.
Venture Global (VG) shares are up 6.3% today after a report that it may have landed a heavyweight customer.
After Thursday’s close, Reuters reported that QatarEnergy is in advanced talks with Venture Global on a long-term deal to buy LNG.
What exactly happened
Three people with knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters the deal would cover at least 3 million metric tons of LNG a year. Neither company has confirmed the talks.
That’s a big order. In all of the second quarter, Venture Global’s new and expanded supply deals totaled just over 2 million tons a year.
The buyer matters as much as the size. QatarEnergy is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters itself, and on Thursday it signed a 4 million-ton-a-year deal with Cheniere Energy (LNG) running from 2031 to 2054.
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This year is already spoken for
A deal like this could improve longer-term revenue visibility. When Venture Global reported its second quarter on Aug. 11, it had contracted 91% of its 2026 cargos at an average liquefaction fee of $5.05 per MMBtu. Its guidance assumes $12.50 to $13.50 for the cargos it hasn’t sold yet.
A long-term contract trades some spot upside for years of steady fees, the income an LNG builder needs behind new capacity.
Analysts already expect revenue to climb from $13.8 billion in 2025 to $22.5 billion in 2028, even with a dip in 2027.
A Qatar deal would add contracted volume, but its effect on estimates would depend on pricing, delivery timing and which volumes it covers.
The stock is still cheap
Wall Street was warming up before the report. On Tuesday, Wells Fargo upgraded Venture Global to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to $21 from $15.
Shares traded at 7.9x forward earnings at Thursday’s close. That’s below their one-year average of 9.0x and far from the 19x they hit in March.
Even after today’s jump, the stock trades at about 8.4x.
The expansion isn’t cheap, though. Venture Global still spends more cash than it brings in as it builds CP2, and earlier this month it signed power and grid agreements with GE Vernova (GEV) and Baker Hughes (BKR) worth about $17.2 billion if every order goes ahead.
A 6.3% move on the prospect of a major long-term customer looks reasonable, maybe even modest. If it gets signed, a buyer of QatarEnergy’s stature makes the discount harder to justify.
Nothing is signed yet, though. The next real test is Venture Global’s third-quarter report next month.
So what is Venture Global stock actually worth?
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