Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- Price change for Eli Lilly stock in last 6 months: 42%
- $LLY Stock Price as of Oct. 22: $1307
- 52-Week High: $1321
- $LLY Stock Price Target: $1332
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What Happened?
J.P. Morgan says the weight-loss drug market in China, India, and Brazil could reach $22 billion by 2035, up from $6.6 billion today. This is possibly a huge opportunity for companies such as Eli Lilly (LLY).
Very few people in these countries take GLP-1 drugs today, given usage is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India. In the U.S., it is 4% to 5%.
Diabetes and obesity are big problems in all three countries, and China accounts for more than 25% of global diagnosed diabetes cases.
India accounts for more than 15%, while about 12% of Brazilian adults have diabetes.
Cost has been the main barrier. J.P. Morgan says patent cliffs, generic launches, and policy-driven price cuts are making these drugs more affordable.
J.P. Morgan expects China to pass Brazil by 2027 and sees China reaching $13.7 billion by 2035, versus $8 billion for Brazil.
India is the smallest market as cultural attitudes and hesitancy around injections are slowing it down.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Eli Lilly Stock
This is a long-term forecast which matters for Eli Lilly stock. Lilly is already a leader outside the U.S.
On its Q2 call, Lilly said its share of the international incretin market was about 55%. Revenue in China grew 93% in constant currency and rest-of-world revenue grew 136%, led by Latin America and Asia.
The call also showed how Lilly sees these markets. Management said market expansion will drive growth, since share leadership is already in place, which lines up with the J.P. Morgan note.
Generic semaglutide has launched in India and Brazil, and Lilly said Mounjaro prescriptions kept growing there.
It credits its head-to-head data as a first line of defense, and Lilly also said generic makers have faced supply constraints.
Lilly’s oral drug, Foundayo, is another lever, which is under review in over 40 more countries. Major launches are expected in 2027, and Lilly raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $85 billion to $87 billion.
For Eli Lilly stock, the takeaway is simple: Emerging markets are early and could be large.
Lower prices may help volume, though they may also pressure margins. Eli Lilly stock will likely stay tied to how well Lilly turns that demand into sales.
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So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
