GE Vernova (GEV) is one of two suppliers on a power deal Venture Global (VG) announced today, October 15, covering up to 16 gas-fired power islands of 720 megawatts each for its LNG sites and potential AI data centers.
The headline number is bigger than the firm commitment. Only eight of the 16 units are reserved so far, and the dollar value assumes every order goes ahead.
What GE Vernova Has Locked In
According to Venture Global’s 8-K filing:
- Venture Global signed the frame agreement on October 9 with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes (BKR), with deliveries through 2034.
- The first power island order is expected by the end of 2026.
- Eight of the remaining 15 islands are reserved with GE Vernova, with orders expected from early 2027.
- Beyond reservation fees, nobody is obligated to buy or supply the rest.
- If every order goes through, the power deal plus a separate GE Grid Solutions transformer deal would total about $17.2 billion, subject to adjustment (the split between suppliers isn’t disclosed).
Sizing It Against GE Vernova’s Power Business
GE Vernova’s Power segment brought in $21 billion over the last four quarters. Second-quarter revenue rose 14% to $5.48 billion.
Even if GE Vernova kept all $17.2 billion, spreading it over eight years to 2034 works out to about $2.2 billion a year, roughly 10% of Power’s current sales. Helpful, not transformative.
The backlog effect is harder to pin down. The reserved islands total 5.76 gigawatts (GW) of combined-cycle capacity, against GE Vernova’s 116 GW of gas backlog and slot reservations in June and its 125 GW year-end target. How much counts toward that metric isn’t disclosed.
What to Hear From GE Vernova on October 28
GE Vernova stock sits about 20% below its record high, and a frame deal won’t reprice it on its own.
Third-quarter results land before the open on October 28, but that backlog closes September 30, nine days before Venture Global signed. Listen for whether management counts these reservations toward the 125 GW target. The reservations hold GE Vernova factory capacity, but purchase orders for the eight islands aren’t expected until early 2027. That’s when this becomes firm business.
You can pull up GE Vernova’s segment revenue, drawdown history and the Street’s target changes on TIKR for free before the October 28 report. Learn more here.
So what is GE Vernova stock actually worth?
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