Key Stats for The Trade Desk Stock
- Current Price: $13.32
- Target Price (Mid): ~$24
- Street Target: ~$13
- Potential Total Return: ~78%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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What Happened?
The Trade Desk (TTD) closed at $13.32 on August 20, a price the stock last saw in early 2019 and nearly 90% below the $139.51 peak it hit in December 2024. The August 6 second-quarter report was the trigger: shares fell about 20% the next session, dropping as much as 27% intraday to a seven-year low, then kept sliding over the following two weeks as one bank after another cut its target.
After a decline this severe in the largest independent player in programmatic advertising, is the stock finally trading below what the business is worth, or is it cheap for reasons that will keep it cheap?
A 3% Growth Quarter From a Former 20%-Plus Compounder
The quarter that broke the stock looked survivable on the surface and alarming underneath. Revenue came in at $715 million, up just 3% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $241 million at a 33.7% margin. Adjusted earnings were $0.34 per share against a $0.40 consensus, and GAAP net income was $64 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.
Management guided third-quarter revenue to at least $650 million, which implies a decline of roughly 12% year over year, plus adjusted EBITDA of around $160 million. For a business the market treated for years as a durable 20%-plus compounder, a guided quarterly contraction was a different kind of number. CEO Jeff Green did not soften it, telling investors the results were “below our expectations and below the standard we hold ourselves to,” and adding that “we didn’t execute as well as we could have.” Around 25% of the platform’s business comes from automotive and consumer packaged goods, two categories being squeezed by tariffs, input inflation, and a consumer split that is pulling back lower-income spending.
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The Street Left in a Hurry
HSBC’s Mohammed Khallouf downgraded the stock to Reduce and cut his target in half to $10, calling the quarter “dismal” with a “sizable miss and guidance shock.” BNP Paribas moved to Underperform with a $10 target, down from $22, and Morgan Stanley slashed its target to $13 from $26 while warning that pressure from counterparties, customers, and competitors was intensifying.
The Street breakdown now sits at 4 Buy, 1 Outperform, 23 Hold, 3 Underperform, and 5 Sell, with a mean target of roughly $13, essentially at the current price. In September 2025, that same panel carried a mean target above $70. The market is no longer paying for any growth premium here, which is what makes the level interesting rather than simply broken.
Revenue under the company’s joint business plans, its long-term commitments with the biggest brands and agencies, grew six times faster than overall revenue, and customer retention held above 95%, where it has been for over a decade. Green also pushed back on the idea that cheaper rivals win on price, walking through the math directly: when a competitor bundles a low fee into its own inventory, “Trade Desk buys an impression for $1.08 and they buy a piece of media for $1.04,” so the real test is whether those extra few cents bought better media, not whether the fee was lower.
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Cheap Against Peers, But Priced Like a Melting Business
TTD trades at about 8.6 times forward EV/EBITDA and roughly 15 times forward earnings, down from a forward EV/EBITDA multiple near 30 times in mid-2025. Omnicom now trades around 7 times forward EV/EBITDA and DoubleVerify around 6.9 times, so TTD no longer commands a meaningful premium over the slower-growing names it used to tower above. Faster-growing AppLovin sits near 13.4 times.
TTD has fallen from the top of its peer group to the middle of it, and whether that is a bargain depends entirely on whether the platform’s edge is intact or eroding. Green argues objectivity grows more valuable as AI reshapes buying, because brands need a platform that protects their data rather than a walled garden that monetizes it.
The bears point at negative forward growth, a finance chief seat that has turned over again with Nate Olmstead only just installed, and Olmstead’s own warning that “visibility is somewhat more limited than it has been in recent history.”
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $13.32
- Target Price (Mid): ~$24
- Potential Total Return: ~78%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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The mid-case assumes a modest recovery, not a return to former glory. The two revenue drivers are the joint business plans compounding faster than the base, which pulls the largest brand budgets deeper into the platform over time, and international expansion, where EMEA, APAC, and China each grew far faster than the mature U.S. business year to date. The margin driver is operating leverage as the multi-year buildout of owned data centers, which is inflating platform costs in 2026, converts to efficiency later. The primary risk is concentration: with the top 500 advertisers dominating the book, a longer CPG and auto downturn caps the recovery before it starts.
- Upside: Execution stabilizes, the platform reaccelerates, and the stock approaches the roughly $33 high case.
- Downside: Growth stays negative, the Street’s $10 targets prove right, and the stock lingers near current levels.
Conclusion
The number to watch is the third-quarter print in early November, measured against management’s own “at least $650 million.” A result at or above that line, with stabilizing margins, would mark the guided contraction as the trough rather than the first step down. A second consecutive guide-down, or JBP revenue slipping from its six-times pace, would tell that the platform story is finally cracking, and the $10 targets deserve more weight than the model’s $24. At roughly 15 times forward earnings for a business still keeping 95% of its customers, the stock is priced for the pessimistic outcome. November decides whether that pessimism was right.
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Should You Invest in The Trade Desk?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
