Key Takeaways for Sysco Stock as of August 2026
- Top and Bottom Line Beat: Sysco posted $22,124.00M in fourth-quarter revenue against Street estimates of $21,890.80M, a beat of 1.07% and growth of 4.66% YoY, while adjusted EPS of $1.53 topped the $1.51 estimate.
- Cash Flow Miss: Free cash flow of $936.00M fell 35.67% short of the $1,455.00M Street estimate, and cash from operations of $1,175.00M missed by 29.00%, even as CAPEX ran 16.39% above forecast at $239.00M.
- Bold FY27 Guide: Management guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS growth of 9% to 11%, or ~$5.02 to ~$5.12 per share, on revenue growth of ~6% to 7%, backed by a new $100M AI-driven cost-out program.
- CEO Confidence: CEO Kevin Hourican called the quarter’s exit velocity “where we need to be” and said the efficiency work “more than covers the pausing of the share buyback.”
Sysco stock just cleared Street estimates while free cash flow fell short by over a third. See how the two square up. Compare Sysco’s full earnings breakdown on TIKR for free →
A Beat-Heavy Quarter for SYY Stock Hides a Cash Flow Problem
Sysco (SYY) closed out fiscal 2026 with a fourth quarter that looked clean on the surface and messier underneath. Revenue hit $22,124.00 million against a $21,890.80 million Street estimate, a beat of 1.07%, and grew 4.66% from $21,138.00 million a year earlier. Adjusted EPS of $1.53 topped the $1.51 estimate by 1.24% and climbed 3.38% year over year, capping a full fiscal year in which adjusted EPS reached $4.61, above the company’s own guidance range.
The margin picture told a different story. EBITDA of $1,346.00 million missed the $1,375.66 million estimate by 2.16%, and EBIT of $1,140.00 million came in 0.45% below the $1,145.12 million Street mark. Gross margin slipped 17 basis points to 18.7%, a drop management tied to a tough comparison against outsized strategic sourcing gains in the prior-year quarter and to elevated inbound fuel costs that Sysco does not hedge. GAAP EPS of $1.15 landed 22.22% below the $1.48 estimate, and free cash flow of $936.00 million missed by 35.67% against a $1,455.00 million forecast, dragged down by CAPEX running 16.39% above plan at $239.00 million.
Sysco stock investors got a clearer signal on where the business is headed than on where the quarter landed. Management issued fiscal 2027 guidance for adjusted EPS growth of 9% to 11%, translating to roughly $5.02 to $5.12 per share, alongside revenue growth of 6% to 7% toward roughly $90 billion. The guide leans on a newly announced $100 million AI-driven cost-out program, layered on top of prior efficiency work, with a $160 million run rate already identified. CEO Kevin Hourican addressed the tradeoff directly on the Q4 earnings call: “It more than covers the pausing of the share buyback.”
That buyback pause connects directly to the pending Restaurant Depot acquisition, still awaiting FTC clearance after a second request during the quarter, with management targeting a close by the third quarter of fiscal 2027. International kept compounding through all of this, delivering its eleventh straight quarter of double-digit adjusted operating income growth at 15.7%, with local case volume up 4.5%. USFS local case growth of 2.6% and a 30 basis point gain in Sysco Brand penetration to 46.4% rounded out a domestic business gaining share even as national restaurant traffic stays under pressure.
Sysco stock just leaned on a 9% to 11% adjusted EPS guide to offset a paused buyback. Dig into the cost-out math yourself. Pull the full Sysco transcript breakdown on TIKR for free →
TIKR Prices Sysco Stock at $119.60, Betting on the FY27 Cost-Out Guide
TIKR’s mid-case model values Sysco at $120 by mid-2031, implying a 42% total return from the current price of $84, or 7% annualized over 4.9 years.
That annualized return sits well above what a mature, low-margin distributor typically offers investors parking capital for five years, a gap that reflects the operating leverage embedded in management’s own algorithm rather than a re-rating bet on the multiple.
The target leans on the same dynamics management laid out for fiscal 2027: a $100 million AI-driven cost-out program layered onto USFS local case growth of roughly 2.5% and International operating income growth that has now strung together eleven straight quarters in double digits.
Reaching $119.60 does not require Sysco stock to re-rate, only for the 9% to 11% adjusted EPS guide to hold as the efficiency projects Brandon Sewell described ramp through the back half of the year.
TIKR’s model puts Sysco stock at $119.60, a 42% total return over 4.9 years. See the assumptions driving that number. Explore Sysco’s TIKR valuation model for free →
Should You Invest in Sysco Corporation?
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Pull up Sysco Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
