Key Stats for Starbucks Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +4%
- 52-Week Range: $75.5 to $117.5
- Current Price: $98.1
What Happened?
Starbucks stock (SBUX) sits at $98.08, still 16.5% below its 52-week high of $117.46, yet the company’s Q1 fiscal 2026 results reveal a turnaround that is fundamentally reshaping how the market should value this brand, with global revenue surging 5% to $9.9 billion and U.S. transaction comps turning positive for the first time in 8 quarters.
The flashpoint arrived on January 28 when Starbucks reported earnings that delivered the precise proof point investors had been waiting for, with the company growing both rewards and non-rewards customer transactions simultaneously for the first time since Q2 fiscal 2022, a feat that confirmed Brian Niccol’s Back to Starbucks plan is producing measurable behavioral change at scale.
Behind that reversal sits the Green Apron Service model, which drove U.S. comparable store sales up 4%, pushed Starbucks Rewards membership to an all-time high of 35.5 million active members, and held average café and drive-thru service times below the 4-minute target even as transaction volumes climbed meaningfully throughout the quarter.
Accordingly, the market is now actively reclassifying Starbucks from a structurally challenged legacy brand into a transaction-growth story, with the 650 Green Apron pilot stores outperforming the broader fleet by 200 basis points in comp growth and a $2 billion cost-reduction program adding a margin-recovery layer that gives the bull case a second engine beyond top-line momentum.
CEO Brian Niccol stated on the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call that “we’ve got a great plan, we’ve been working the plan, and the plan is working,” contextualizing the remark with U.S. transaction comps turning positive across all dayparts and the company projecting 3% or better global comparable store sales growth for the full fiscal year.
However, on the institutional front, a coalition including the New York City Comptroller and New York State Comptroller publicly pushed against the re-election of directors Jørgen Vig Knudstorp and Beth Ford at the March 25 annual meeting, signaling that governance pressure around labor relations remains a structural overhang that management must resolve to fully unlock re-rating potential.
Looking out 3 to 5 years, the Ristretto store format, the Boyu Capital joint venture in China targeting 60% ownership with Starbucks retaining a 40% stake, and a domestic store pipeline pointing toward thousands of identified sites collectively signal that Starbucks stock is positioning itself to command a premium growth multiple rather than the discounted valuation that defined its recent past.
Wall Street’s Take on SBUX Stock
Starbucks’ first transaction comp reversal in 8 quarters directly validates the earnings acceleration thesis, shifting the forward story from turnaround speculation to execution confirmation with fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $2.15 to $2.40 now carrying genuine credibility.
The fundamental trajectory supports that conviction, with forward revenue growth accelerating to 3.1% in fiscal 2026 after bottoming at 2.8% in fiscal 2025, while EPS rebounds 7.8% to $2.30 after crater-ing 35.6% the prior year, signaling the compression cycle has definitively ended.
Wall Street currently fields 13 buys, 5 outperforms, 14 holds, 1 underperform, and 3 sells against a mean price target of $100.16, implying only 2.1% upside from $98.08, suggesting analysts are cautiously upgrading into early-stage strength rather than chasing the story aggressively.
The spread between the $74.00 low target and $120.00 high target reveals the stakes clearly, with bears anchoring to margin compression risk and the Boyu China dilution while bulls point to the $2 billion cost program and domestic store pipeline as the inflection points that close the gap.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Given the transaction growth reversal, the China joint venture accretion of roughly 40 basis points to consolidated margins, and a $2 billion cost program gaining momentum, the mid-case valuation model prices SBUX at $139.06, implying a 41.8% total return over 4.6 years at a 7.9% annualized IRR.
The most consequential risk remains North America margin compression, where operating margins contracted 420 basis points in Q1 and EBITDA margins sit at a multi-year low of 14.5% in fiscal 2025, leaving the bull case entirely dependent on back-half cost relief materializing as management projects.
At $98.08, Starbucks looks like a wait-and-see at current prices given the razor-thin 2.1% analyst consensus upside, with the Q2 earnings call on April 28 serving as the critical test of whether margin recovery and transaction momentum can hold simultaneously without sacrificing one for the other.
Should You Invest in Starbucks Corporation?
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