Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan started coverage of Savara on Oct. 7 with an Overweight rating and a $12 target, 146% above the $4.88 close.
- Shares have lost 30% since December 2025. In that time the FDA moved its Molbreevi decision back to Nov. 22, and analysts now expect bigger losses.
- JPMorgan’s target implies 136x next-twelve-months sales, against 55x today, which is near the stock’s five-year low.
- The call looks plausible but stretched, and it depends on the FDA’s Nov. 22 decision.
Savara (SVRA) shares have lost 30% since their December high, but JPMorgan thinks the stock could more than double from here.
On Wednesday, the firm started coverage with an Overweight rating and a $12 price target, 146% above that day’s $4.88 close.
A slow leak
Two things have gone against Savara this year.
On April 15, the FDA pushed its decision on Molbreevi, Savara’s only drug, back three months to Nov. 22. The agency counted Savara’s answers to its questions as a major amendment to the application (Savara said it cited no safety, efficacy or manufacturing concerns).
Then on Aug. 11, Savara’s second-quarter loss came in at $0.16 a share, a penny worse than consensus. Expected losses have widened since. According to Yahoo Finance, the 2026 consensus has gone from a $0.58-per-share loss 90 days ago to $0.65 today, and 2027’s from $0.29 to $0.37.
The stock is down 21% over the last three months. (Zoom out, and it’s still up 42% from a year ago.)
JPMorgan’s bet on November
JPMorgan sees several near-term catalysts, starting with a potential approval. For a one-drug company, that’s the whole ballgame: in June, management put the US market at about 5,500 patients, priced at $400,000 to $500,000 a year.
Does $12 add up?
JPMorgan isn’t out on a limb. All nine analysts in TIKR’s data rate Savara a Buy or Outperform, and $12 sits just above their $11 mean target, inside a $9-to-$16 range.
The price is what moved, peaking at $6.94 in December while the mean target crept from $10 to $11.
Analysts expect sales to start almost from scratch: $2.02 million this year, $82 million in 2027 and $206 million in 2028.
Those numbers already assume a launch around the turn of the year, so an on-time approval shouldn’t move them much. A rejection or another delay would.
With no earnings to price, Savara trades on forward sales, and at 55x, it’s near its cheapest in five years.
Here’s the check: at $4.88 and 55x, the stock is priced on about $0.09 of sales per share over the next twelve months. Divide JPMorgan’s $12 by that, and you get roughly 136x. That’s more than double today’s multiple, but far below the 483x five-year average.
Of course, that average flatters the target: for most of those years, Savara had almost no sales expected.
My take: it all comes down to Nov. 22
The risk is plain: Savara has one drug, and the FDA has turned it away before, with a refusal-to-file letter in May 2025.
I think JPMorgan’s call is plausible, but stretched for now. The target is in line with the Street, and the multiple it implies is well within Savara’s history. But getting there takes a re-rating from 55x to 136x while expected losses widen, and that only happens with an approval.
Nov. 22 is the date to watch. If the FDA approves Molbreevi on time, $12 starts to look a lot more achievable.
So what is Savara stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Savara could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
