Key Stats for Samsara Stock
- 52-Week Range: $23.4 to $48.4
- Current Price: $32.3
- Street High Target: $57.6
What Happened?
Samsara (IOT) delivered its highest net new annual recurring revenue growth in eight quarters on March 5, posting $144.8M in Q4 net new ARR, up 33%, as the connected operations platform that links physical assets like vehicles and equipment to cloud-based software hit $1.89B in total ARR at $32.26 per share.
Q4 revenue of $444.3M beat the $422.3M analyst consensus by roughly 5%, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.18 cleared the $0.13 IBES estimate by 38%, triggering a 13.5% after-hours surge to approximately $33.60 on March 6.
Underlying that beat, Samsara’s emerging products portfolio, which includes tools like AI-powered multi-camera safety systems, asset tracking tags for smaller equipment, and automated maintenance software, contributed 23% of Q4 net new contract value and now exceeds $100M in ARR, with Asset Tags ARR more than tripling year over year.
On March 5, CEO Sanjit Biswas stated on the Q4 2026 earnings call that “we now have more than 25 trillion data points flowing through our platform every year,” tying directly to the February 26 launch of the Asset Tag XS, a compact tracker five times smaller than the original designed for handheld tools, which expands the addressable pool of assets customers can digitize.
Samsara’s 2027 guidance of $1.965B to $1.975B in revenue and $0.65 to $0.69 in non-GAAP EPS, both above prior consensus, combined with a confirmed Investor Day at the Beyond 2026 conference from June 23 to 26 in Las Vegas and an AI agent roadmap covering safety, maintenance, and compliance workflows, positions the platform to deepen its grip on the $80 of every $100 its largest customers spend on physical operations.
Wall Street’s Take on IOT Stock
The 33% net new ARR growth and 38% Q4 EPS beat that already drove IOT’s after-hours pop on March 6 now feed directly into a 2027 earnings ramp that TIKR estimates will lift normalized EPS from $0.56 to $0.68, a 21% step up on accelerating large-customer momentum.
TIKR estimates 2027 revenue at $1.97B, a 21.8% gain driven by the record 13 $1M-plus net new contract transactions in Q4 and emerging products, including Asset Tags and AI Multicam, now contributing over $100M in ARR.
IOT’s EBITDA margin is also projected to expand from 18.9% in 2026 to 20.6% in 2027 and 22.2% in 2028, as TIKR estimates, supported by the platform’s software-heavy revenue mix and management’s stated plan to hold non-sales headcount roughly flat.
Wall Street’s 15 buys and 3 outperforms against just 5 holds reflect a broadly constructive setup, with a mean price target of $44.17 across 21 estimates implying roughly 37% upside from $32.26, anchored to expectations of sustained ARR acceleration and the first full year of GAAP profitability.
The spread from the $30.00 low target to the $57.60 high reflects genuine disagreement on whether the 23% emerging-product mix in Q4 net new ACV is repeatable or a peak, making the June 23 Investor Day in Las Vegas the pivotal read on product attach rates.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model’s mid-case target of $74.72 implies 131.6% total return at a 19% annualized IRR, grounded in an 18% revenue CAGR through 2031 and 22.4% net income margins, assumptions the AI Safety Coach rollout and Asset Tag XS expansion are designed to support.
At roughly 49x forward normalized EPS, IOT trades at a sharp discount to its NTM P/E of 68x just three months ago, despite accelerating ARR growth and a clear path to GAAP profitability, making the stock undervalued relative to its own recent multiple history on improving fundamentals.
The TIKR model’s $74.72 target rests on 18% revenue CAGR, a rate the platform’s $432M in 2026 net new ARR, its highest in eight quarters, and the confirmed Investor Day on June 23 are expected to substantiate.
Management’s shift in core customer definition from $10K to $25K in ARR, disclosed on the March 5 call, signals a deliberate pivot toward larger, stickier accounts where multiproduct attach and dollar-based net retention of 115% are already proven.
If net new ARR growth decelerates in Q1 2027 below the 33% Q4 pace, the TIKR model’s 18% revenue CAGR assumption loses its primary support and the $74.72 target compresses materially.
The Q1 2027 earnings release, expected in early June, will test whether the $454M to $456M revenue guidance holds and whether emerging products sustain above 20% of net new contract value.
Should You Invest in Samsara Inc.?
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