Key Takeaways for ResMed Stock as of September 2026
- 3-Month Rally: ResMed stock has climbed 13% over the past three months, closing at $219.58 on September 10 after peaking near $240 in early September.
- Capital Return Ramp: ResMed closed a $450M accelerated share repurchase funded by MatrixCare sale proceeds and raised its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.66 a share, pushing FY27 shareholder returns above $1.85B, up 75% YoY.
- Street Split: ResMed stock carries 6 buy ratings, 1 outperform and 11 holds, with 1 sell and 1 no opinion; separately, 16 analysts publish a price target, and their mean sits at $246.44, 12% above the current price.
- Model Upside: TIKR’s mid-case model values ResMed stock at $379 by mid-2031, implying 73% total return from today’s price, or 12% annualized over 4.8 years.
Why ResMed Stock Climbed 13% in Three Months Despite a Guidance Cut
ResMed (RMD) stock has climbed 13% over the past three months, closing at $219.58 on September 10 after touching a high near $240 in early September. That run followed one of the roughest single-day stretches of the year for the sleep-health device maker.
ResMed beat fiscal fourth-quarter estimates on August 6, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.95 against a $2.89 estimate and revenue up 9% to $1.46 billion. Shares still dropped about 6% the next morning. The culprit was fiscal 2027 guidance: 5% to 7% core revenue growth, below the Street’s prior expectations, weighed down by the suspended sale of Astral ventilators after a field safety recall tied to five serious injuries. That suspension alone strips roughly $75 million from fiscal 2027 revenue and carried a $42 million charge in the June quarter.
What pulled the stock back above its pre-earnings level was the capital plan sitting underneath that guidance. ResMed agreed to sell its MatrixCare software business to Frazier Healthcare Partners for $490 million, a deal that closed around September 1 and freed proceeds for a $450 million accelerated share repurchase. The board also raised the quarterly dividend 10% to $0.66 a share. Chairman and CEO Michael Farrell framed the scale of it plainly on the Q4 2026 earnings call: “Between share repurchases and dividends, we expect to return over $1.85 billion to shareholders in 2027, an increase of over 75% year-over-year. This marks the second consecutive year of over 70% growth in capital returned to shareholders.” That commitment, layered on top of the Noctrix acquisition that opened ResMed’s pipeline to a restless legs syndrome market it estimates at 400 million people worldwide, gave investors a growth and cash-return story to hold onto once the Astral headwind was priced in.
The stock’s pullback off its early-September peak lines up with routine insider selling tied to option exercises, not a change in the thesis. What moved ResMed stock over the past three months was the market deciding that a leaner, cash-generative portfolio outweighed a one-year hit to ventilator sales.
ResMed Stock’s Target Keeps Falling Even as the Price Climbs
ResMed stock carries 6 buy ratings, 1 outperform rating and 11 holds, with 1 sell rating and 1 no-opinion rating rounding out the coverage. Separately, 16 analysts publish a price target on the stock, and their mean sits at $246.44, 12% above the September 10 close of $219.58.
That gap has been narrowing from an unusual direction. Back on March 31, the mean target stood at $296.87 against a $224.48 close, a 32% premium. By June 30, the target had slipped to $260.60 even as the price fell further to $194.88, stretching the premium to 34%. Since then, ResMed stock has rallied 13% while the mean target kept falling, not rising, to its current $246.44.
Jefferies cut its target to $225 from $240 in early July, well before the Astral guidance cut even landed. The ratings mix tells the same story: buy ratings have slipped from 9 a year ago to 6 now, while holds have climbed from 6 to 11 over the same stretch.
Analysts are getting more cautious about ResMed stock precisely as the price recovers, which means the current rally is running on capital-return conviction rather than Street upgrades.
TIKR Values ResMed Stock at $379, Betting on the Capital Return Story
TIKR’s mid-case model values ResMed at $379 by mid-2031, implying 73% total return from the current price of $220, or 12% annualized over 4.8 years.
A 12% annualized return compounded over nearly five years sets a considerably higher bar than the market is currently paying for, and it assumes ResMed keeps growing revenue and margin well past the near-term drag from the Astral suspension.
ResMed stock trades at 18 times forward earnings right now, well below its three-year mean of 23 times and closer to the 15 times low it hit earlier this year. That compression is the gap TIKR’s model is underwriting: the market hasn’t repriced ResMed stock for the buyback-funded return story at all, it’s still paying a multiple that assumes flat-to-slower growth.
The model’s case leans on the same shift already showing up in the numbers: a leaner post-MatrixCare portfolio, an accelerating buyback, and a restless legs syndrome market Noctrix just opened up, all funneling free cash flow back to shareholders faster than the Street has been willing to raise its own price target. That gap, a mean target trimmed to $246 while TIKR’s model sits at $379, is the tension ResMed stock now trades on.
Should You Invest in ResMed Inc.?
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Pull up ResMed Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
