Key Stats for Intuit Stock
- Current Price: $313.94
- Target Price (Mid): ~$600
- Street Target: ~$406
- Potential Total Return: ~90%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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What Happened?
Intuit (INTU) used its August 25 earnings call to do something premium compounders almost never do voluntarily: it lowered the bar on itself. The maker of TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma beat on the quarter, then cut its long-term growth framework for its largest business, and the stock fell anyway. Shares closed at $313.94 on September 9, down more than 50% over the past year and well off the $705 high set in that span.
The fear is that artificial intelligence is compressing the pricing power in the parts of Intuit investors long assumed were untouchable, and management’s own guidance now leans into that pressure rather than fighting it. The question underneath the price is whether that fear is finally overbuilt, or whether $314 is still too much for a business whose growth ceiling just came down.
The Bar Came Down Before Anyone Forced It
Fourth-quarter revenue was $4,354 million, up about 14% and ahead of the Street by 1.99%, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.03. Full-year revenue reached $21.45 billion, up 14%, with earnings per share up 20%.
Intuit guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $23.28 billion to $23.51 billion, growth of just 9% to 10%, down from 14%. More telling, it set a three-year revenue CAGR target for Global Business Solutions, the QuickBooks engine, of 10% to 15%, below the 15% to 20% range analysts had been working with a year earlier.
CEO Sasan Goodarzi framed the cut as a choice. “We are creating the pressure. We are not being pressured to make the change,” he told analysts. He was blunter still on the consumer side: “Price is now the number one reason customers leave TurboTax.” That admission is the reason the stock trades here, because it confirms what AI bears have argued all year. Intuit is now deliberately accepting lower initial DIY tax revenue per customer to stop losing filers to cheaper rivals, betting it can monetize them later through Credit Karma and assisted tax.
JPMorgan cut to Neutral and dropped its target from $605 to $331, warning that disruption risk had spread beyond TurboTax into QuickBooks. Morgan Stanley moved to Equalweight, from a $580 target to $315. Bank of America cut to Neutral. The Street mean target now sits near $406, and sentiment has flattened to 15 Buys, 5 Outperforms, 12 Holds, and 2 bearish ratings across 34 firms. A year ago, the Holds were a handful; now they are the second-largest bloc. The overhang is heavier this month: a securities class action alleges insiders sold more than $41 million in stock while reaffirming TurboTax growth that later weakened. The allegations are unproven, and a separate $93,000 director sale on September 8 is a routine planned selling.
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The Business that the Selling Ignores
Underneath the reset, the parts of Intuit meant to carry the future are still compounding. The three “Big Bets,” which are assisted tax, money, and mid-market, together grew 34% and now make up 30% of revenue. Mid-market revenue grew 39%, and Intuit Enterprise Suite, the AI-native platform for businesses up to roughly $100 million in revenue, crossed $145 million in annualized revenue in the fourth quarter, a fourfold jump from a year earlier. Online payment volume, including bill pay, grew 30% to more than $225 billion for the year.
Intuit generated about $6.6 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, repurchased $5.5 billion of stock in fiscal 2026, nearly double the prior year, and raised the dividend 15%. A company in financial distress does none of that. Growth is normalizing while profitability holds, yet the market is pricing the reset as if the margins were at risk, too.
Intuit trades at about 19 times trailing earnings and under 13 times next-twelve-month earnings, against a history of 30 to 40 times. On an enterprise basis, it changes hands at roughly 8.3 times forward EBITDA, versus Salesforce at nearly 12 times and ServiceNow at above 20 times. That leaves Intuit among the cheapest large-cap software names in its peer group on forward EBITDA. It is either the market seeing something structurally broken or a genuine dislocation created by the reset.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $313.94
- Target Price (Mid): ~$600
- Potential Total Return: ~90%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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Using the mid-case assumptions, the TIKR model points to a target near $600 over roughly the next five years, a total return of about 90%, or around 14% annualized. This is the mid case by design: the real question is whether a de-rated compounder can re-rate at all, and the mid case answers it without heroic inputs.
The two revenue drivers behind that number are mid-market expansion, where QuickBooks Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite grew near 38%, and money services, where payments and bill pay volume grew 30% as attach rates keep climbing. The margin driver is operating leverage, with management guiding to margin expansion in fiscal 2027 even while investing in customer acquisition; the model assumes net income margins hold around 30%, roughly where the business already runs.
The primary risk is the one Goodarzi named himself. If AI competition forces more price concessions in DIY tax, and that pressure spreads into QuickBooks, growth settles at the low end, and the multiple stays compressed. The upside: mid-market and money keep compounding, the DIY funnel stabilizes, and the market re-rates a business it oversold. The downside: the reset proves to be the first cut of several, and $314 is a value trap rather than a floor.
Conclusion
The next real test is the Investor Day on September 17, where management promised to go deeper on the reset. Watch one thing above all: proof that new-to-the-franchise customer growth is actually accelerating, not just promised. QuickBooks Free moving well past its current 20,000-plus early users, plus any hard number showing DIY tax e-file share stabilizing, would signal the funnel is rebuilding. More patience with no metrics, and the stock has further to fall. The bull case does not need Intuit to grow 15% again. It needs the market to believe 10% is durable. September 17 delivers the first read.
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Should You Invest in Intuit?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
