Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Price change for Nike stock in the last 6 months: -34%
- $NKE Stock Price as of Sep. 10: $37
- 52-Week High: $77
- $NKE Stock Price Target: $50
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What Happened?
Nike (NKE) stock is trading near its 12-year low after Morgan Stanley resumed coverage with an Underweight rating and a $31 price target.
Shares closed at $36.62, down nearly 2% on the day, and have now fallen 34% over the past six months.
Morgan Stanley’s bearish call hinges on earnings expectations. The firm believes the market is underestimating how much Nike’s earnings per share could get revised lower, along with the risk of further valuation compression.
Specifically, Morgan Stanley models second-half fiscal 2027 earnings coming in mid-single digits below what Wall Street currently expects, and fiscal 2028 through 2030 earnings averaging about 15% below consensus.
The main driver behind those lower estimates is a more cautious view on revenue, especially in China, where Morgan Stanley expects a slower recovery than most analysts are currently pricing in.
At roughly 18 times fiscal year two earnings, the firm argues Nike stock still looks expensive relative to its new growth trajectory and a sportswear market that’s becoming more fragmented and competitive.
Morgan Stanley flagged that China weakness could show up as early as the next quarterly earnings report, with Nike’s November Investor Day another likely moment when broader expectations get reset.
The firm’s $31 price target comes from a discounted cash flow model and works out to about 17 times fiscal 2028 earnings, a multiple only slightly below where Nike stock trades today.
Not everyone on Wall Street agrees with this take.
BMO Capital also just started coverage with an underperform rating and a $30 target, citing slowing lifestyle demand and a reset in China distribution.
But UBS holds a Neutral rating with a $48 target, saying it’s unclear whether the negative factors are already priced in.
RBC Capital, meanwhile, kept its Sector Perform rating and $45 target after meeting with CEO Elliott Hill, describing management’s presentation as balanced.
Separately, Nike shareholders recently voted against a proposal that would have required more disclosure around the company’s climate goals and emissions targets, adding another data point to a stretch of mixed headlines.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Nike Stock
The spread between analyst price targets, from Morgan Stanley and BMO’s bearish $30-$31 range up to UBS’s more optimistic $48, shows just how divided Wall Street is on where Nike stock goes from here.
That kind of disagreement usually signals a stock at an inflection point, where the next few quarters of data will matter more than usual.
For now, Nike stock sitting near its 52-week low reflects real concerns about China’s recovery timeline and margin pressure in a crowded sportswear market.
Investors will likely be watching the next earnings report and November’s Investor Day closely for signs of which narrative, the bulls’ or the bears’, starts to win out.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
