Key Stats for Qualcomm Stock
- Current Price: $168.74
- Target Price (Mid): ~$415
- Street Target: ~$194
- Potential Total Return: ~146%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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What Happened?
Qualcomm (QCOM) spent 2026 being priced as a company running out of road, and in late August, one of its executives quietly undercut that story. Speaking at the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on August 26, EVP of Technology Planning and Data Center Durga Malladi said the first-generation silicon behind Qualcomm’s data center push is “back in the lab, looking good. It’s coming along very nicely.” A roadmap is a promise. Working silicon in a lab is a product taking shape, and that is the distinction the market has refused to pay for.
Shares have recovered about 15% off their post-earnings low, yet still trade near 18 times forward earnings, a discount to nearly every large-cap chipmaker Qualcomm competes with. The stock is valued as a shrinking handset business with a chip division attached. What that price does not credit is a data center segment the company says will clear $15 billion in revenue by fiscal 2029, up from essentially zero today.
What Changed in August: From Roadmap to Lab
The largest risk to the data center thesis was always execution. Malladi’s August comments move the needle on exactly that. Both the High Bandwidth Compute (HBC) memory architecture and the Dragonfly C1000 server CPU now have silicon validating in the lab. On HBC, which is slated to ship in 2027, Malladi said, “We don’t anticipate any issues for the first generation.” The C1000 follows in 2028. Proof-point data is due within the next quarter, so the promise gets checked against silicon soon.
At its June Investor Day, Qualcomm named Meta as the launch customer for the C1000 under a multi-generation agreement, and Microsoft’s Azure unit committed to deploying the HBC architecture. Malladi’s account of the memory vendors is more telling than any benchmark. He expected Samsung and SK Hynix to defend their own HBM roadmaps when he visited Korea after the event. Instead, both are reportedly moving to partner on HBC, and Malladi said their response was “how can we work with you much closer on this.” The parties with the most to lose from HBC displacing HBM chose cooperation over defense.
Qualcomm’s Modular acquisition targets the CUDA lock-in that keeps AI workloads tethered to NVIDIA hardware. Malladi noted that Qualcomm took the Modular stack open source the prior week, and an AMD representative appeared on stage and said it would test the software on its own chips. A rival volunteering to try your stack is a stronger signal than a self-published benchmark, and it matters because Modular can earn on other companies’ racks, not just Qualcomm’s.
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The Business the Market Is Pricing Is Not the One Being Built
Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $9.95 billion on July 29, down about 4% year over year, and adjusted earnings of $2.21 landed a hair under the $2.22 consensus, snapping a six-quarter beat streak. Management guided the September quarter to roughly $10.1 billion, down around 10% year over year, and CEO Cristiano Amon has said Qualcomm expects to supply modems for only about 20% of iPhones this year and none by 2027.
Qualcomm trades at 18.19x NTM P/E and 13.06x NTM EV/EBITDA, per TIKR. Against peers, the discount is stark: NVIDIA sits near 19.10x forward earnings, Broadcom near 20.68x, Texas Instruments near 26.71x, and AMD near 43x, per TIKR’s Competitors page. Qualcomm sits at the bottom, and the premium those peers carry is credited AI exposure. Qualcomm’s discount is the market declining, so far, to credit its own. Automotive is the proof that the pivot is already underway: a record quarter and a new BMW agreement pushed the fiscal 2026 exit run-rate target to roughly $7 billion.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $168.74
- Target Price (Mid): ~$415
- Potential Total Return: ~146%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Qualcomm stock (It’s free!) >>>
Two revenue drivers carry that number. The first is the data center ramp, from zero toward the stated $15 billion-plus by fiscal 2029, the line that separates this thesis from a bet on stabilizing handsets. The second is automotive, now at a record run rate and targeted near $7 billion exiting fiscal 2026. On the model’s assumptions, revenue compounds around 13% and net income margin holds near 25%, resting on a richer non-handset mix rather than squeezing the licensing base.
The primary risk is timing: HBC ships in 2027 and the C1000 in 2028, so the revenue that justifies the target arrives years after handset erosion is fully felt. Upside: validated silicon and signed hyperscalers convert on schedule, and the multiple re-rates toward AI-exposed peers. Downside: the ramp slips, and the stock stays anchored to a shrinking handset base that no longer supports even 18x.
Conclusion
Qualcomm said HBC validation numbers will arrive in the coming quarter, and the first data center revenue will land in the December quarter. Hard silicon data matching the Investor Day claims would say the $15 billion target is on track; another quarter of roadmap language without validation would say the skeptics were right. Qualcomm reports fiscal Q4 in early November, and that report, alongside any HBC numbers it chooses to unveil, is where the promise first meets the silicon.
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Should You Invest in Qualcomm?
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Pull up Qualcomm, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
