Key Takeaways:
- AI Adoption Accelerating: Monday.com’s AI-related ARR doubled from Q1 to Q2 and now makes up 17% of net new ARR added in the quarter.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, MNDY stock could reach $117 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 29% from the current price of $91.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 11% annualized growth over the next 2.3 years.
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Monday.com (MNDY) shares have been cut in half over the past year, even as the underlying business kept growing.
Revenue rose 22% year over year in Q2 2026 to $365 million, and the company crossed $1.5 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in July.
On July 22, Monday.com cut its global workforce by about 20%, its toughest decision since founding the company.
Management says most of the savings will go back into product, talent, and AI, not straight to the bottom line.
The bigger story is the shift toward AI.
Co-CEO Eran Zinman said AI ARR doubled quarter over quarter and now represents 17% of net new ARR, a sign that customers are actively choosing to pay for AI features rather than just getting them for free.
Despite this progress, MNDY stock trades at $91, well off its highs, leaving room for investors willing to bet on the turnaround.
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What the Model Says for Monday.com Stock
Monday.com sells work management software that helps teams plan and track projects, and it’s now pushing into CRM, service management, and AI agents that can actually do parts of the work, not just organize it.
The company posted record net additions of $100,000-plus and $500,000-plus customers in the quarter, showing its push into larger accounts is working.
Net dollar retention (NDR) came in at 109%, though management expects it to ease slightly to around 108% for the full year as earlier price increases roll off.
The restructuring is meant to simplify the business. Fewer management layers, sharper focus on CRM and service products, and a new “forward deployed engineer” model to help big customers actually implement AI tools.
Using a forecast of 16.4% annual revenue growth and 15.3% operating margins, our model projects the stock could climb to $117 within 2.3 years. This assumes a 14.9x price-to-earnings multiple, well below Monday.com’s own one-year average of 26.2x.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MNDY stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 16.4%
Monday.com grew revenue 22% in Q2, but full-year guidance points to 19-20% growth, and management expects further moderation as the pricing lap and go-to-market restructuring play out.
We’re assuming growth settles closer to the mid-teens as the company balances its upmarket push against softer demand down market.
2. Operating margins: 15.3%
Q2 non-GAAP operating margin came in at 17%, up from 15% a year earlier.
The 20% workforce reduction should further support margins, with management targeting roughly $100 million in annualized savings.
Full-year guidance calls for about 16% operating margin, so our 15.3% assumption sits close to that trajectory.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 14.9x
MNDY stock currently trades at 14.9x forward earnings, a steep discount to its one-year average of 26.2x and its 15-year average near 16.3x.
The lower multiple reflects real uncertainty.
The company is mid-restructuring, AI monetization is still early, and growth has decelerated from the 30%-plus rates seen a couple of years ago.
We’re keeping the multiple roughly flat rather than assuming a re-rating.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
SaaS companies going through AI transitions can see wide swings in outcomes depending on execution. Here’s how Monday.com stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 12.7% and net income margins settle at 14.4%, investors could still see a 16.5% total return, or about 3.6% annually.
- Mid Case: With 14.2% growth and 15.4% margins, we expect a total return of 52.3%, or roughly 10.2% annually.
- High Case: If AI adoption accelerates faster than expected, pushing revenue growth to 15.6% and margins to 16.3%, returns could reach 94.0% total, or about 16.6% annually.
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The gap between these outcomes mostly comes down to how quickly Monday.com can turn its early AI traction into meaningful, recurring revenue, and whether the restructuring translates into durable margin gains rather than short-term disruption.
How Much Upside Does Monday.com Stock Have From Here?
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- Exit P/E Multiple
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
