Key Stats for QUALCOMM Stock
- 52-Week Range: $122 to $260
- Current Price: $216
- Street Mean Target: $180
- Street High Target: $300
- Analyst Consensus: 10 Buy, 2 Outperform, 22 Hold, 3 Underperform, 2 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Sept. 2030): $236
Qualcomm Stock Drops 11% as Nvidia Enters AI PCs — But the Real Story Is Automotive and Data Center
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) fell around 11% on June 5 after Nvidia unveiled its RTX Spark AI PC chip, a move that sparked a sector-wide sell-off in AI PC chip suppliers including Qualcomm stock.
The RTX Spark, developed with Microsoft, is designed to run AI agents locally on laptops and desktop computers.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced the chip at Computex in Taipei, framing it as the company’s effort to “reinvent the PC for the AI era.”
Qualcomm stock had already dipped around 8.8% on June 2 when the announcement hit, extending losses through the week.
Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon had also spoken at Computex, describing 2026 as “the year of agents” and arguing that the shift to agentic AI makes local edge computing unavoidable.
Qualcomm’s Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings, reported April 29, delivered revenue of $10.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.65, with EPS landing at the high end of guidance.
QCT Automotive hit a record quarter at $1.3 billion in revenue, representing 38% year-over-year growth, driven by the company’s fourth-generation Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform.
Management guided automotive to accelerate further, targeting year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 50% in the fiscal third quarter.
Amon confirmed Qualcomm had exceeded $5 billion in annualized automotive revenues for the first time and expects to exit fiscal 2026 at a run rate above $6 billion.
On the handset side, QCT China Android shipments remain constrained by an industry-wide memory shortage, with management calling the fiscal third quarter the bottom and guiding for sequential growth in the following quarter.
In data center, Qualcomm confirmed it has a custom silicon engagement with a leading hyperscaler and expects initial shipments in the December 2026 quarter, pulling forward a revenue timeline that previously targeted fiscal 2027.
“We now expect initial shipments for a custom silicon engagement at a leading hyperscaler later this calendar year,” CFO Akash Palkhiwala said on the Q2 2026 earnings call.
Wall Street Is More Cautious Than the TIKR Model — Here Is Why the Gap Exists
Qualcomm stock’s street mean price target of around $180 sits roughly 17% below the current price of $216, one of the wider sell-side-to-current-price gaps in the semiconductor sector.
The consensus reflects genuine concern: EPS estimates step down to around $2.23 in the June 2026 quarter and around $2.35 in September, before recovering to approximately $2.67 in December 2026.
QUALCOMM stock’s revenue follows the same shape, dropping from $10.6 billion in the March quarter to roughly $9.7 billion in June, then recovering toward around $10.7 billion by December 2026.
The street is not wrong about the near-term pressure, but consensus targets were set before Qualcomm confirmed its hyperscaler custom silicon engagement and before automotive growth was guided to approximately 50% year-over-year in the fiscal third quarter.
With 22 Hold ratings against only 12 combined Buy and Outperform ratings, analysts are effectively saying risk-reward is balanced at current prices, not impaired.
The high target of $300 signals that at least some coverage sees a path where data center scale and automotive momentum more than offset the handset headwind.
The risk to watch is Apple’s fiscal 2027 royalty renewal, with the current licensing agreement expiring in April 2027.
Palkhiwala confirmed Apple’s chip contribution will be around $2 billion in QCT product revenue for fiscal 2027, but the QTL royalty stream, which carries margins above 70%, remains subject to renegotiation.
Amon characterized the licensing business as “probably one of the most stable times” in its history, but the outcome of that renewal will materially influence the 2027 EPS trajectory.
Is Qualcomm Stock Undervalued in 2026? What the TIKR Model Shows
TIKR’s base case values Qualcomm at approximately $236 by September 2030, implying around 9% total return from the current price of $216, or roughly 2% annualized over approximately 4 years.
On that base case alone, Qualcomm stock is modestly undervalued relative to the current price, but the more relevant signal is the spread across scenarios.
If automotive continues gaining share, data center revenue reaches the “multiple billions” Amon characterized as “material” for fiscal 2027, and the memory headwind clears by mid-2027, TIKR’s high case puts the stock at around $335, implying roughly 55% total return and approximately 5% annualized.
That is the scenario where the current sell-off looks like a genuine entry point.
The low case, where revenue growth holds at around 4% and EPS growth slows to around 2% annually, produces a target of approximately $225 with a near-zero IRR.
That outcome fits a world where Nvidia captures meaningful AI PC share, Apple displacement accelerates, and the data center engagement stays a single-hyperscaler relationship rather than a platform.
Qualcomm enters June 24 having confirmed one custom ASIC engagement, a CPU engagement with a U.S. hyperscaler, and a merchant accelerator product line.
How large and how fast that pipeline converts is what separates the low case from the high case, and neither will be fully clear until the Investor Day.
Is Qualcomm stock a buy right now?
Qualcomm stock is priced below the TIKR base case target of approximately $236, and the street high target reaches $300.
Near-term EPS estimates decline to around $2.23 in the June 2026 quarter before recovering, and the automotive segment is growing at around 50% year-over-year.
The handset trough is real but management-guided as temporary, while the data center argument remains unproven until the June 24 Investor Day provides revenue scale and customer detail.
What do analysts say about Qualcomm stock?
With 22 Hold ratings, the street consensus reflects caution rather than conviction in either direction.
The mean price target of around $180 sits below the current price of $216, reflecting concern over near-term EPS declines tied to the memory-driven handset slowdown and Apple’s chip share step-down.
The high-end target of $300 signals that analysts who model data center success see significant upside.
The June 24 Investor Day is the next likely catalyst for estimate revisions.
Should You Invest in QUALCOMM Incorporated?
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