Key Takeaways
- Amazon’s Sept. 8 custom silicon deal gives Qualcomm’s data center plan a named customer, with revenue starting in the December quarter and warrants tied to up to $60 billion of purchases over 10 years.
- Management guided fiscal 2027 non-handset growth above 60% to replace Apple product revenue, while Apple’s step-down accelerates after the next iPhone launch.
- TIKR consensus puts normalized EPS at $10.20 in fiscal 2027, down from $10.48 in fiscal 2026, before $12.95 in fiscal 2028.
Qualcomm Adds Amazon as Apple Revenue Falls, and Wall Street Models a Pause
Qualcomm’s chief financial officer opened the Sept. 8 Goldman Sachs conference with news. Amazon signed a multiyear custom silicon and optical connectivity deal, with revenue starting in the December quarter and warrants vesting against up to $60 billion of Amazon purchases over 10 years.
The timing matters because Apple was already leaving. On the Q3 2026 earnings call, management said its share of the next iPhone would be “materially lower” than the 20% it had planned, and guided to a roughly 50% drop in Apple product revenue from September to December.
The replacement is the plan. Management expects fiscal 2027 non-handset growth above 60% to ‘replace total Apple product revenues’ from fiscal 2026, while targeting $5 billion of data center revenue. Its two near-term custom-silicon engagements already have purchase orders in hand.
QCOM’s segment data shows what is being rebuilt. QCT revenue climbed from $30.38 billion in fiscal 2023 to $38.37 billion in fiscal 2025, while QTL licensing barely moved, from $5.31 billion to $5.58 billion. Apple’s Sept. 24 patent license extension supports that licensing stream.
The Fiscal 2027 Earnings Gap Is the Price of the Swap
Analysts already model the handoff as a pause. Consensus revenue is $42.88 billion for fiscal 2026 and $44.91 billion for fiscal 2027, against $44.14 billion in fiscal 2025. Normalized EPS slips from $10.48 to $10.20 before reaching $12.95 in fiscal 2028.
Management’s own disclosures explain the dip. Custom silicon is expected to drag QCT gross margin by 1.5 to 2 points, and fourth-quarter operating expenses are guided to about $2.7 billion on a non-GAAP basis as Modular and data center spending run ahead of revenue.
The judgment is that fiscal 2027 is a transition year and fiscal 2028 decides the thesis. The $51.88 billion consensus for that year assumes growth reaccelerates after the transition. Data center is one important part of that step-up: management expects strong year-over-year data center growth from fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2028, while its first high-bandwidth compute solution is scheduled to launch in mid-2027.
The main risk is margin. Price increases phase in gradually, so gross margin may realign more slowly than revenue grows.
The December quarter is the next test: first Amazon revenue, and the first sign of gross margin recovering. A miss on either would leave the fiscal 2028 estimate looking early.
So what is QUALCOMM stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what QCOM stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value QUALCOMM Incorporated for free→
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
