Key Takeaways
- Precigen stock fell 26% after Inovio won accelerated FDA approval for Voceryq, a rival to Papzimeos, Precigen’s only product.
- In separate trials, 51% of Papzimeos patients went a year without surgery, against 27% for Voceryq.
- Voceryq’s edge is easier dosing, with no surgery needed during treatment.
- Papzimeos’ stronger data and head start of more than a year make the selloff look overdone, and Wednesday’s third-quarter report is the next test.
Precigen (PGEN) stock fell 26% this morning. After Friday’s close, Inovio (INO) said the FDA had granted accelerated approval to Voceryq.
Voceryq treats recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP), a rare disease of airway growths, as does Papzimeos, the drug behind nearly all of Precigen’s revenue.
Inovio’s stock is up 187%, from a market value of just $62 million at Friday’s close. It plans to ship Voceryq in about 60 days and have its full sales team in the field in the first quarter of 2027. That’s a lot to build for a first launch against a drug that has been selling for more than a year.
Better data, easier dosing
In Papzimeos’ pivotal trial, 51% of patients needed no surgery in the 12 months after treatment. In Voceryq’s, 27% did. They were separate trials, though, so the comparison is rough.
Voceryq’s case is convenience. After one surgery before the first dose, it needs no more during its four doses over nine weeks. Papzimeos takes four doses over 12 weeks, with growths removed before the first and, if they’re back, before the third and fourth.
For patients facing repeat surgeries, I’d expect doctors to favor the better response rate.
TIKR tracks 4 analysts on Precigen. How many say “Buy”?
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Analysts were counting on a lot
Going into Monday, analysts expected Papzimeos to take Precigen’s revenue from $9.7 million in 2025 to $437 million in 2027.
Voceryq will be fully on the market in those years. Papzimeos’ orphan drug exclusivity runs to August 2032, but it didn’t keep a different drug out.
At Friday’s close, Precigen traded at 7.8x forward sales, far below its five-year average of 29x. Today’s drop takes it even lower.
What to watch on Wednesday
Precigen reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Analysts expect $236 million of revenue for 2026, which means close to $80 million a quarter in the second half, up from $55 million in the second quarter.
I think investors are pricing in more damage than the evidence supports. Papzimeos has the stronger data and a long head start.
Of course, Voceryq’s simpler dosing could win over more doctors than the trial numbers suggest. We won’t know how many patients switch for months.
So what is Precigen stock actually worth?
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