Key Takeaways
- Carl Icahn held 71.2 million CVR Energy (CVI) shares at June 30, worth $1.96 billion and 24% of the stocks in his latest 13F, and the stock is up 105% since.
- Analysts expect CVR Energy to return to a profit in 2026 after two years of losses, and they see its earnings peaking in 2027.
- CVR Energy now trades above every analyst’s price target, while Wall Street sees upside in Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy.
- I wouldn’t buy CVR Energy ahead of its Q3 report, because the stock has already run past what the Street thinks it’s worth.
Carl Icahn’s second-biggest bet has more than doubled in four months, and it reports earnings in early November.
As of June 30, in his latest filing, Icahn held 71.2 million shares of CVR Energy, worth $1.96 billion. That’s 24% of the $8.26 billion of U.S. stocks in the 13F he filed on Aug. 14.
Same shares, twice the price
Icahn’s share count didn’t change from the quarter before. Those 71.2 million shares are roughly 70% of CVR Energy, so this is a controlling stake, and it says little about whether the stock is worth buying at today’s price.
CVR Energy stock, meanwhile, is up 112% from June 30, the day his filing covers. His next 13F, for the quarter ended Sept. 30, is due by Nov. 16.
TIKR tracks 6 analysts on CVR Energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on CVR Energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See CVR Energy’s Analyst Ratings
The turnaround is real
The business has given the rally something to stand on. In its Q2 release on July 29, CVR Energy reported adjusted earnings of $0.34 a share, against an adjusted loss of $0.22 per share a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA of $209 million, more than double the $99 million of the second quarter of 2025.
Its refineries ran at 98% crude utilization, and it declared a $0.10 per share dividend after paying none for the same quarter a year before.
Management also said on the call that today’s market could give it room to pay down debt, which stood at $1.8 billion at June 30 against $737 million of cash.
Analysts expect the recovery to take CVR Energy from a normalized loss of $1.22 a share in 2025 to earnings of $3.57 in 2026 and $4.55 in 2027, then back down to $2.72 in 2028:
Only three of the six analysts have a 2028 estimate. But the ones who do see 2027 as the peak.
The stock has outrun every target
Wall Street has spent the year chasing this stock. The consensus price target has climbed from $27.83 a year ago to $48 today:
Even the bears keep raising the stock price target. In October, Mizuho lifted its target to $52 from $29 and kept an Underperform rating; Goldman Sachs went to $50 from $36 with a Sell; and JPMorgan went to $47 from $32, also with a Sell.
Still, CVR Energy closed Friday 18% above the $48 average of the six analysts who cover it, and above the Street’s highest target, $53.
The bigger refiners look very different. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) slid with the rest of the group on Oct. 28, and analysts’ average targets now sit 3% and 7% above their prices.
On StockAnalysis’s forward P/E figures, Marathon trades at about 5x and Valero at about 6x, against about 8x for CVR Energy.
So the two bigger names cost less per dollar of expected earnings, and the Street thinks both are worth more than today’s price.
I’d let CVR Energy report first
I wouldn’t buy CVR Energy before earnings. The turnaround is real, but the stock already trades above every analyst’s target, and the Street sees its earnings peaking in 2027.
Icahn controls the company and can sit through the next downturn in refining margins. Someone buying today, at more than double June’s price, is paying up for a peak analysts expect to fade.
The risk to that view is a Q3 strong enough to lift estimates and targets again, or a favorable EPA ruling on the small-refinery exemption CVR Energy has asked for at its Wynnewood refinery.
The Q3 report in early November, with Marathon’s due around the same time, will show whether refining margins held up. And Icahn’s next 13F will show whether he’s still sitting tight.
So what is CVR Energy stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what CVR Energy could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
