Key Takeaways
- Joby began a week of electric air taxi flights across Florida on October 31 under the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program.
- The stock closed Friday at $5, down 32.3% over three months and 71% below its 52-week high.
- Almost all revenue still comes from Blade, and Joby expects to burn $385 million to $415 million in the second half.
- Joby reports on November 4, with analysts expecting about $39 million of revenue and a $0.25 loss per share.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) started a week of electric air taxi flights across Florida on Saturday. The flights run under the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, which lets Joby operate before full FAA type certification.
Investors didn’t buy in ahead of time. Shares slipped 3.5% to $5 on Friday and have dropped 32.3% in three months.
Rival Archer Aviation (ACHR) is fighting Joby in court over talent and technology. On September 29, a federal judge narrowed Joby’s trade-secret and contract claims against Archer while letting others proceed, and dismissed Archer’s counterclaims outright.
So Joby has aircraft flying and a slight legal edge for now. What it still lacks is a business that runs on air taxis.
Florida is a dress rehearsal
Florida’s plan covers cargo, passengers, automation and medical response in phases. This week is the opening act.
The groundwork is broader:
- Joby was selected in March for early operations in 10 states, including New York, Texas and Florida.
- Its autonomous J208 has logged 400 flights and 800 automated hours.
- Five aircraft are flying in the final stage of FAA type certification, with 12 more in production.
Wall Street already models a steep climb once flights turn into fares…
That implies revenue roughly doubling each year through 2028, which only works if Dubai and U.S. service start on time.
Blade pays the bills, barely
Today, Joby is mostly a helicopter and jet company. Q2 revenue reached $38.6 million, and Blade supplied $36.2 million of it, about 94%.
Management did raise full-year revenue guidance to $115 million to $125 million. Meanwhile, the loss side is far larger. The GAAP net loss hit $245 million, including a $108 million warrant revaluation, while operating expenses rose to $300 million.
This is what that spending looks like over time:
At the second-half guide, Joby burns about $800 million a year. That gives its $2.3 billion of cash close to three years, less if production spending rises.
Insiders haven’t added confidence either. CEO JoeBen Bevirt sold 606,667 shares for $3.75 million in September, after selling 596,667 shares for $4.69 million in August.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Joby Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Joby Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Joby Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
Paying for 2028 today
Joby has about $1.5 billion of net cash, so its $3.3 billion enterprise value is mostly a bet on the aircraft program.
How much is the market paying for that bet?
Even after the slide, investors pay 27.9x next year’s sales, and most of those sales still come from Blade.
Wall Street’s average target of $10 implies 104% upside. That gap shows how binary the story is.
My take: The Florida flights matter because they turn years of certification work into something customers can see. Still, I think the stock now trades on the cash runway more than on demos. With insiders selling and roughly $400 million going out the door this half, I’d want a firm commercial start date before buying.
Wednesday’s report is the next check. Analysts expect about $39 million of revenue and a $0.25 loss per share. More importantly, it should update type certification progress, the Dubai launch timeline and whether the second-half cash guide still holds.
So what is Joby Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
