Key Takeaways
- Oracle stock is down 55.0% over the past year, closing at $126.16 on October 23, even though Oracle beat Wall Street’s adjusted EPS estimate in each of the last four quarters.
- Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 30% to $19.3B, while free cash flow came in at negative $5B.
- Analysts expect revenue to climb from $90.42B in fiscal 2027 to $183.81B in fiscal 2029.
- Next test: Investor Day on October 28.
Oracle (ORCL) stock is down 55.0% over the past year, closing at $126.16 on October 23. Over the same stretch, Oracle beat Wall Street’s adjusted EPS estimate in four straight quarters.
That gap is the story. By my math, Oracle stock started the period near $280, so a year of beats still left the shares at less than half that price. The pressure came from how Oracle funds its AI data centers, not from demand for them.
How Oracle Stock Gave Back Its June Rally
The first leg was a slide from the low $280s in early November to around $140 by late January. The bigger swing came later. Oracle posted fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.11 on June 10 against a $1.96 estimate, and the stock peaked near $248 that month before falling to about $116 by late July. In between, S&P Global cut Oracle’s credit rating to BBB-, one notch above junk.
Oracle Stock’s September: A Beat, Then New Mexico
Oracle’s fiscal first-quarter results on September 10 showed revenue up 30% to $19.3 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.4 billion. Adjusted EPS of $1.92 topped the $1.74 consensus, and Oracle raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to at least $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 in non-GAAP EPS.
Cash was the weak spot. Capital spending hit $28 billion, leaving free cash flow at negative $5 billion. Asked on the earnings call when free cash flow turns positive, CFO Hilary Maxson said: “We haven’t given a particular time frame on that yet, and we don’t expect to give that today.” Oracle still plans $90 billion to $95 billion of capital spending this fiscal year.
Then on September 24, Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the Blue Owl (OWL) unit building Project Jupiter, its New Mexico campus, citing potential delays in securing power. Oracle stock fell 3.5% that day, and its five-year credit default swaps (the cost of insuring its debt against default) hit a record. On October 22, Oracle said a Bloom Energy (BE) fuel-cell microgrid of up to 2.45 gigawatts would replace the site’s planned gas turbines and diesel generators. That same day, Reuters reported Oracle’s swaps were again close to a record.
TIKR Tracks 44 Analysts on Oracle. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oracle, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oracle’s Analyst Ratings
What the Street Still Expects From Oracle
Analysts see revenue of $90.42 billion in fiscal 2027 (the year ending May 2027), $131.79 billion in fiscal 2028 and $183.81 billion in fiscal 2029, a 103.3% climb in two years.
Meanwhile, normalized EPS estimates run $8.14, $10.99 and $15.77. At $126.16, Oracle stock trades at 15.5x this year’s estimate and 11.5x next year’s. A company the Street sees lifting EPS 93.7% by fiscal 2029 doesn’t usually sit at that multiple, which puts the doubt on funding rather than on the forecasts.
The Two Dates Oracle Stock Holders Should Circle
Oracle holds its Investor Day at AI World on October 28, and Maxson said on the call that more on margins would come there. The number that matters is a date for positive free cash flow. Then comes the December 14 report, where Oracle guided to revenue growth of 30% to 34% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85 to $1.93.
A free cash flow date would turn the 15.5x multiple into a funding discount with an end point. Without one, four straight beats haven’t been enough so far.
So What Is Oracle Stock Actually Worth?
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Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
