Key Takeaways
- Alphabet stock is up 26.5% over the past year to $320.21, but it sits 20.5% below its $402.62 record close from May 13.
- The slide since May followed an $80 billion equity plan in June and a raised 2026 capex guide of $195 billion to $205 billion, which sent shares down 7.13% to $317.69 on July 23.
- Analysts still see revenue rising from $500.14 billion in 2026 to $626.82 billion in 2027.
- Third-quarter results land Wednesday, October 28.
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock is up 26.5% since late October 2025, closing at $320.21 on October 23, but most of the past five months ran the other way once Alphabet started funding its AI buildout with new stock and a capex budget it has raised twice this year.
That’s the tension inside the one-year number. Alphabet stock set a record close of $402.62 on May 13, so Friday’s price sits 20.5% below that peak by my math, and 3.8% under the $332.77 average close of the past year.
How Alphabet Stock Climbed to a $403 Record
The year began at $253.08, the low on the chart, and most of the gain arrived in the spring. After sliding into the mid-$270s at the end of March, the stock turned on Alphabet’s first-quarter report on April 29. Revenue rose 22% to $109.9 billion, Google Cloud grew 63% to $20.0 billion, and Cloud backlog nearly doubled in one quarter to more than $460 billion.
Shares gapped higher the next day and kept climbing into the May 13 record. Two days later, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) disclosed it had lifted its Alphabet stake 224% in the first quarter, making the Google parent its seventh-largest holding at $16.6 billion.
Then Alphabet Started Paying for the Buildout
On June 1, Alphabet unveiled plans to raise $80 billion in equity, including $10 billion from Berkshire and a $40 billion at-the-market program starting in the third quarter. The underwritten Class A shares priced at $355.1982, 11.8% below the May 13 record.
The second-quarter report on July 22 was strong on the top line: revenue grew 24% to $119.8 billion and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth, reaching $24.8 billion. But Alphabet also lifted its 2026 capex guide to $195 billion to $205 billion from $180 billion to $190 billion, and $44.9 billion of quarterly capex pushed free cash flow negative. The stock fell 7.13% to $317.69 on July 23.
An 18.9% rebound to $377.65 by August 4 faded within days, and Alphabet stock spent late August and September between the $330s and mid-$350s.
Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian made the returns case at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 8: “Our payback period on AI servers in aggregate is less than 2 years and on our own silicon is half that.” He added that most infrastructure contracts are long-term, five-year commitments.
TIKR Tracks 50 Analysts on Alphabet. How Many Say “Buy”?
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October Pulled Anthropic Into Alphabet’s Story
Alphabet stock closed at $353.78 on October 13 and lost 9.5% over the next eight sessions. Over the same stretch, Reuters reported on October 15 that some Anthropic investors were discussing an IPO valuation of about $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion, after the AI lab’s sequential revenue growth slowed to 45%.
That matters to Alphabet twice. Gains on equity stakes have padded reported earnings: Alphabet booked $99.0 billion in net gains on equity securities in the second quarter, which helped lift EPS 294% to $9.11. And Anthropic has reportedly committed roughly $111 billion to Google Cloud, about 22% of the unit’s disclosed backlog, according to Scotiabank estimates reported by Reuters.
The selling deepened on October 22, when Alphabet fell 3.15% to $324.22, the day after Meta Platforms (META) raised the low end of its capex forecast and announced a new non-voting share class to help fund AI spending.
What the Street Still Expects From GOOGL
Analysts aren’t modeling a slowdown. The consensus has revenue climbing from $500.14 billion in 2026 to $626.82 billion in 2027, a 25.3% jump, and to $754.76 billion in 2028. Normalized EPS is seen rising from $11.89 to $15.36 and then $18.16, a 52.7% gain over two years by my math. The second quarter’s $9.11 GAAP EPS equals 76.6% of the $11.89 full-year normalized estimate, but the figures are not directly comparable: quarterly GAAP earnings included $99.0 billion in pre-tax net gains on equity securities.
What Alphabet Stock Needs From October 28
Alphabet reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, October 28. The Street’s $500.14 billion for 2026 leaves $270.44 billion for the second half after $229.7 billion in the first, or $135.22 billion a quarter on average. That’s 12.9% above the second quarter’s $119.8 billion.
The decline from Alphabet’s record has coincided with its June equity raise and July capex hike, despite accelerating revenue growth. Investors have also faced concerns about Gemini delays and competition in AI. So the number that matters most on Wednesday is whatever Alphabet says about 2027 capex, set against Cloud growth that ran at 82% last quarter. If Cloud keeps accelerating and the backlog keeps growing beyond Anthropic’s commitments, today’s price looks like an overcorrection to me. Another open-ended capex raise with no payback figure attached makes that gap harder to close.
So What Is Alphabet Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
