Key Takeaways
- A Deutsche Bank analyst thinks Meta’s Muse agent could bring in up to 8% of Meta’s revenue by 2030.
- The bigger opportunity is the data Muse collects, which could sharpen ad targeting across Meta’s whole ad business.
- Advertising was about 98% of Meta’s $201 billion in revenue in 2025, so even a 1% rise in ad pricing would be worth billions a year.
- The main risk is cost: Meta’s capital spending nearly doubled to $69.7 billion in 2025, and Meta is still working out how to charge for Muse.
Meta Platforms (META) just got its first Wall Street price tag on Muse:
Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black sees the AI agent driving “up to 8% of revenue” by 2030.
The story around Muse was already running hot. As Jim Cramer put it on last Tuesday’s Mad Money:
“That makes me think that Meta is changing right in front of our eyes. It’s going from a cyclical company based on ads to a partially secular grower.”
I think Cramer’s right about where Meta is headed, and I think Deutsche’s right to be bullish! It’s just that 8% of revenue is the wrong way to measure how it gets there.
Where the 8% comes from
So far Muse doesn’t charge for much. On the same episode, Meta President and Vice Chairman Dina Powell McCormick laid out the idea:
“We’re thinking through, as Mark described last week, a potential of taking a fee when we help you save money.”
So the top of Black’s range depends on a fee Meta is still “thinking through.” That’s not crazy. Muse has been downloaded more than 5.1 million times so far, according to Sensor Tower, and that’s plenty of people to take a small cut from.
But look at what Muse would be a percentage of…
Analysts expect Meta’s revenue to grow about 80% from 2025 to 2028, to $363 billion. Pretty much all through ads. (Ok, 98% of the business is ads.)
Better targeting pushes that number up. Meta’s average price per ad rose 9% in 2025, on top of a 12% increase in ad impressions.
I wrote two weeks ago that Meta could use the data from Muse to improve its ads on Facebook and Instagram. I’m even more convinced now. Black himself said “Muse has the potential to become an always-on personal assistant for consumers.”
An always-on assistant knows you’re pricing flights to Denver for Thanksgiving, comparing car seats, and booking a table for your anniversary. Those are exactly the moments advertisers pay up to reach.
Instead of trying to manage fees, subscriptions, membership upgrades and downgrades…just use the data to feed the ad engine.
Capex has to pencil out
The spending is real. Meta’s capital spending went from $18.7 billion in 2021 to $69.7 billion in 2025, and it nearly doubled last year alone…
In McCormick’s words, “these artificial intelligence products coming out of our MSL lab are only making the core business stronger.”
The bill isn’t shrinking, though, and Meta’s suppliers can see that too. On Tuesday, Citi analyst Atif Malik raised his price target on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to $800 from $575. He called Meta “one of the largest customers of AMD’s server business” and agentic AI “a potential orders-of-magnitude driver of compute demand relative to traditional chatbots.”
That’s great for AMD shareholders. For Meta’s, it means Muse’s computing costs will keep rising as people use it more, and the ad business has to pay for them.
So is 8% the right number?
Who knows? And who cares? Any fee Muse earns is a bonus on top of the real prize: making the ad business Meta already has work harder. And most of it will show up in Meta’s results as advertising.
Of course, Mark Zuckerberg probably has his own game plan, and it’ll take time to play out. We’re still in the early innings, but this is a good time to be excited about Meta stock.
So what is Meta stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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