Key Takeaways
- Oklo stock rose 14% in the week to Nov. 9 on a narrower third-quarter loss and a forging deal for 27 reactors.
- Nuclear stocks, NuScale Power and Constellation Energy among them, rallied alongside it.
- Analysts expect Oklo to burn more than its $3.13 billion of cash through 2029.
- Aurora-INL’s cost and the share count in the annual report expected in March are the next numbers to watch.
Oklo (OKLO) rose 14% from its Nov. 2 close to its Nov. 9 close of $26.84, more than making up for the midterm sell-off. Investors cheered a narrower third-quarter loss and a forging deal, both out before Friday’s open.
NuScale Power (SMR) jumped Friday on its own smaller loss, and nuclear stocks kept climbing Monday after Constellation Energy (CEG) beat estimates and raised its guidance.
A smaller loss and a supply bet
Oklo lost $0.22 a share in the third quarter, against the $0.27 analysts expected, and kept its 2026 capital spending guidance of $400 million to $500 million.
The U.S. Forged Rings deal reserves capacity equal to 27 Aurora modules, with first deliveries in 2030. That’s a sensible hedge against scarce reactor forgings. But Oklo hasn’t signed a binding power contract for any of those modules, and its Idaho plant is targeted to start up in 2028 or 2029.
Nuclear stocks bounced together
NuScale’s loss shrank to $0.11 a share from $1.85 a year earlier, when it booked a one-time payment to its partner ENTRA1. It’s still waiting on a binding deal between ENTRA1 and the Tennessee Valley Authority.
Oklo had no news Monday. Constellation raised the midpoint of its full-year guidance, and its stock rose 10.5%, while NuScale gained 7%. Constellation’s results suggest the data-center backlash investors feared hasn’t reached nuclear power yet. But Constellation runs reactors today, and Oklo is still years from selling power.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Most of the price is still cash
At Monday’s close, Oklo was worth about $5.2 billion, against $3.13 billion of cash and securities at Sept. 30. Analysts expect that cash to go out faster every year:
That’s about $3.9 billion of burn from 2026 through 2029, more than Oklo holds. And its third-quarter stock sales came at around $44 a share, well above Monday’s close, so each new share now raises less.
Goldman Sachs cut its target to $30 from $49 on Monday, Craig-Hallum to $27 from $53 and Canaccord to $66 from $100, and the average has fallen hard over the past year:
It’s down to $63 from $104 a year ago, still well above the stock.
Management still hasn’t said what Aurora-INL will cost, and Piper Sandler raised its estimate for an Oklo plant to $7,000 per kilowatt from $4,000 in October. Investors may want to see that cost and the share count, already 195.3 million on Nov. 4, before buying. Of course, a binding power contract with Meta, which signed an agreement in January that lets it prepay for power from Oklo’s planned Ohio campus, could move the stock sooner.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
