Key Takeaways
- D-Wave Quantum shares rose 14% in the week through Nov. 9, alongside IonQ and Rigetti Computing, after IonQ beat estimates and raised its 2026 revenue guidance.
- D-Wave had almost no news of its own, and the stock is still down more than half this year.
- IonQ now owns SkyWater, which makes part of D-Wave’s chips.
- D-Wave’s third-quarter revenue beat estimates on Nov. 10, but the fourth quarter alone now needs about $32 million to hit the 2026 consensus.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) stock rose 14% in the week through Monday’s close, and almost none of that came from D-Wave itself. The lift came from IonQ (IONQ), which beat third-quarter estimates after Thursday’s close.
IonQ rose 25% over the same stretch and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) 22%. D-Wave reported before Tuesday’s open, Rigetti reports after the close, and D-Wave is still down more than half this year.
IonQ did the heavy lifting
IonQ brought in $173.8 million of third-quarter revenue against the $141.2 million analysts expected. It also raised its 2026 guidance to 505million-515 million, well above the $455 million consensus. And IonQ now owns SkyWater, the foundry that makes part of D-Wave’s chips, so the rival that lifted D-Wave’s stock also owns one of its key suppliers. D-Wave extended that relationship with a multi-year manufacturing agreement on Oct. 13.
Rigetti has a lower bar to clear. Analysts expect $3.68 million of third-quarter revenue, less than the $5.1 million it brought in during the second quarter, so the Street is already braced for a step back.
TIKR tracks 17 analysts on D-Wave Quantum. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on D-Wave Quantum, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See D-Wave Quantum’s Analyst Ratings
D-Wave still has to earn it
D-Wave brought in $4.5 million of third-quarter revenue, ahead of the $4.34 million analysts expected, after three straight quarterly misses. That makes about $10.4 million so far this year, so the $42.7 million consensus needs roughly $32.2 million in the fourth quarter. On its second-quarter call, management said both of this year’s system sales would likely ship in the fourth quarter, including Florida Atlantic University’s $20 million machine. After that, analysts see revenue nearly doubling to $80.6 million in 2027:
The backlog makes that a stretch. D-Wave expects about 59% of its $38.3 million in signed orders not yet recognized as revenue, roughly $22.6 million, to turn into revenue over the next 12 months. That’s less than the fourth quarter alone needs. The forward multiple has come down hard:
At 61x forward sales as of Friday, and higher after Monday’s 7.4% gain, D-Wave trades far below its 3-year average of 152x. That’s still a rich price.
The bounce is IonQ’s, and D-Wave’s beat came from services and cloud revenue while system sales fell $1.5 million. If D-Wave confirms both systems are still on track for fourth-quarter revenue, the lower multiple looks a lot more reasonable. If either slips into 2027, the week’s gain could vanish as fast as it came.
So what is D-Wave stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what D-Wave could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
