Key Takeaways
- The Trade Desk is up 19% in the past week, and its third-quarter revenue of $736 million beat its own floor by $86 million.
- Its fourth-quarter guide of at least $755 million tops the roughly $699 million analysts had penciled in.
- AppLovin’s record quarter shows ad budgets are growing, while Trade Desk’s revenue still trails last year’s.
- If the fourth quarter lands at its guide, this year’s estimates look too low, leaving room for more upside.
The Trade Desk (TTD) is up 19% in the past week, most of it on Monday, Nov. 9, as buyers got in ahead of its third-quarter report. The company had guided revenue to shrink about 12%, and it came in at $736 million, down just 0.5% from a year earlier.
Ad money is out there. AppLovin (APP) is up 79% in the past week after a record quarter, with revenue up 55% to $2.18 billion. AppLovin’s ads run mostly inside mobile apps, so Roku’s 23% ad revenue growth is the better read for Trade Desk. A nearly flat quarter suggests some of it is reaching Trade Desk.
The quarter beat its own floor by $86 million
The bar was low because second-quarter revenue rose just 3% to $715 million, about $35 million short of its own guide. A 15% workforce cut followed on Sept. 3. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $266 million, against about $160 million guided. CEO Jeff Green said in the release:
“Q3 represented meaningful progress, with results well ahead of our expectations entering the quarter, but we are still operating below the level of growth we expect from ourselves.”
The fourth-quarter guide calls for at least $755 million of revenue. That’s still about 11% below last year’s $847 million, but above the roughly $699 million the Street’s full-year estimate implied. The board also added $731 million to the buyback, for $1 billion in all.
TIKR tracks 36 analysts on The Trade Desk. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on The Trade Desk, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See The Trade Desk’s Analyst Ratings
This year’s estimates look too low
Add the first three quarters to the fourth-quarter floor, and 2026 revenue comes to about $2.89 billion, level with 2025. Analysts expected revenue to fall this year and again in 2027:
This guide should push those numbers up. The stock traded at about 14x forward earnings on Nov. 6, far below its 49x five-year average:
Monday’s jump took it to about 16x, and the $13.53 average analyst target sits about 9% below Monday’s close. Revenue still trails a year earlier, and existing clients spent less in the second quarter. CFO Nate Olmstead said a strategic partner added about 3 percentage points to third-quarter revenue, and that business won’t recur.
The early buyers look right. There’s more upside if the fourth quarter lands at its guide, since rising estimates would bring the multiple back down. The test is the fourth-quarter report early next year: whether revenue clears $755 million, and whether existing clients are spending again.
So what is The Trade Desk stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
