Key Takeaways
- OpenAI’s adjusted operating margin is negative 109%; Anthropic’s is about 15% positive on an adjusted basis.
- OpenAI runs 90-plus percent on NVIDIA; Anthropic, one third or less, per SemiAnalysis’s Dylan Patel.
- NVIDIA has put its balance sheet behind OpenAI, including a lease guarantee capped at $105 billion.
- NVIDIA’s lab exposure makes its growth riskier than its estimates suggest, while Broadcom stands to gain more from Anthropic.
OpenAI is reportedly raising $15 billion in a new round. That matters more to NVIDIA (NVDA) than to most companies, because OpenAI runs almost entirely on its chips.
SemiAnalysis’s Dylan Patel made the point on TBPN after Jensen Huang’s exit: “OpenAI has their own chip and has been working on it longer, but they’re 90 plus percent NVIDIA, whereas Anthropic is like one third or less NVIDIA.”
Anthropic buys much of its compute from Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN), and Broadcom (AVGO) helps design Alphabet’s TPUs. Anthropic is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 19. OpenAI is the one losing far more.
NVIDIA’s Biggest Lab Is Losing the Most
OpenAI’s third-quarter revenue rose about 50% to $10 billion, while its adjusted operating loss widened to $10.9 billion, according to investor documents reviewed by the Wall Street Journal. That’s an adjusted margin of negative 109%, from about negative 150%, CNBC’s Kate Rooney said on the Halftime Report.
Anthropic’s adjusted margin is about 15% positive, Rooney said, though its adjustments exclude items such as stock-based compensation. On a reported basis, Anthropic’s IPO filing shows a $567 million operating loss on $17 billion of third-quarter revenue.
Hyperscalers Still Carry the Numbers
NVIDIA has demand well beyond OpenAI. Management said in February that the top five cloud providers and hyperscalers make up a little over half of its data center revenue, though some of that capacity serves labs like OpenAI:
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $216 billion in the year ended January 2026 to $896 billion in the year ending January 2029. With next year’s growth supply-limited, other buyers would likely take chips a strained OpenAI couldn’t.
NVIDIA Put Its Balance Sheet Behind OpenAI
The bigger exposure is support NVIDIA chose to give. It has guaranteed parts of the lease and power payments on OpenAI’s Ohio campus, capped at $105 billion, phasing in from 2028 and payable only if OpenAI defaults. NVIDIA is now expected to slow its AI investing and credit guarantees, the Information reported.
Pricing is at stake, too: a lab running most of its work on other chips can push back. NVIDIA’s gross margin has stayed in the 70s for three fiscal years:
Management expects it to bottom at 71% to 72% in the January 2027 quarter on memory costs.
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Broadcom Gains Where NVIDIA Doesn’t
NVIDIA committed up to $10 billion to Anthropic in November 2025 and has agreed to buy $10 billion of its stock alongside the IPO, but Anthropic still runs mostly on other chips, per Patel. Broadcom, which works with Google on TPUs, may have more to gain. Analysts expect its revenue to more than quadruple from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028:
Morgan Stanley estimates Alphabet will sell $84 billion of TPU systems to outside buyers in 2027, and Amazon says its chips business topped a $25 billion annual run rate by the second quarter.
Watch NVIDIA’s Receivables
OpenAI’s losses alone shouldn’t cut NVIDIA’s estimates. But NVIDIA’s guarantees sit behind the lab losing far more, while the lab with positive adjusted margins runs mostly on other chips, per Patel. That makes NVIDIA’s growth riskier than its estimates suggest.
NVIDIA reports on Nov. 17. Its receivables, and anything management says about financing the labs, will be the best read on whether lab funding pressure is reaching NVIDIA.
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