Key Takeaways
- CEO Jim Anderson and Chairman Enrico DiGirolamo bought $1.2 million of Coherent stock on Nov. 9 and 10, with shares 47% below their June high.
- Heavy spending on AI capacity is burning cash, even as revenue grew 50% last quarter.
- Analysts expect EPS to nearly double this fiscal year, while the forward P/E sits below its five-year average.
Coherent (COHR) CEO Jim Anderson bought 5,000 shares on Nov. 9 at $199.48, or $997,400. The next day, Chairman Enrico DiGirolamo added 1,000 shares at $222.89, or $222,885, according to Anderson’s and DiGirolamo’s Form 4s, filed Nov. 12.
That’s $1.2 million, with the stock still 47% below its $440 high from early June. So far, the timing looks good: at $232 on Nov. 12, shares sit 14% above the $203.38 they paid on average.
Big Growth, Bigger Spending
Revenue rose 50% to $2.37 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 30, and non-GAAP EPS jumped 80% to $2.09. On the Nov. 4 earnings call, Anderson said Coherent signed a PhotonLink deal with “a major AI company” worth about $20 billion over five years, starting in early calendar 2028.
Free cash flow, though, was negative $1.0 billion in fiscal 2026, which ended June 30. Last quarter, operating cash flow was negative $93 million, capex hit $776 million and inventory climbed to $3.3 billion from $2.6 billion in June. CFO Sherri Luther expects capex to rise again this quarter.
BofA cut its target to $240 from $400 the day after the report, and shares fell 13% that day as AI stocks sold off after the midterm elections.
TIKR Tracks 26 Analysts on Coherent. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Coherent, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Coherent’s Analyst Ratings
A Small Add for the CEO, a Reversal for the Chairman
Five days before his buy, Anderson told analysts: “We continue to see no signs of attenuation in demand.” His 5,000 shares lifted his stake just 3%, to 190,287, though that’s 10 times his 500-share buys in 2024. His bigger bet is his pay: a performance award granted Aug. 27, with a $50 million target value, pays nothing unless the stock averages $454.43 over 60 days, above June’s high, and beats the median of its peer index, according to an 8-K filed Aug. 31.
DiGirolamo’s buy lifted his holding 9% to 11,644 shares. It’s also a turn: he sold 5,315 shares at about $306 on Sept. 11 and is now buying 27% lower.
Did the Insiders Get a Good Price?
Analysts expect EPS to nearly double in fiscal 2027, which ends in June, and to climb about half again in fiscal 2028:
The stock went the other way: its forward P/E fell from 57x in early June to 17x at the Nov. 6 close, well below its five-year average of 24x:
The consensus target fell far less, to $372 from $416 in August:
Coherent’s Insiders Got a Good Price, With One Catch
Coherent still spends far more than it brings in, and it leans on a few big buyers: one customer took 20% of fiscal 2026 revenue, and the $20 billion deal comes from a single AI company.
Still, the two paid $203.38 on average for a company analysts expect to earn $10.41 a share this fiscal year. With the forward multiple below its five-year average, I think they got a good price.
For anyone who follows what insiders are buying, it’s a signal worth noting. The early-February report will show whether growth starts turning into cash, with management expecting more than $100 million of PhotonLink revenue in the March quarter.
So What Is Coherent Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
