NIO Stock Is Down 25% in a Month Even as Revenue Jumped 69%

Key Stats for NIO Stock

• 52-Week Range: $3.55 to $8.02
• Market Cap: around $9 billion
• Street Mean Target: around $6.30
• Forward 2-Year Revenue Growth (CAGR): around 32%
• LTM Gross Margin: 17.4%
• NTM EV/Revenue: around 0.4x
• NTM EV/EBITDA: around 7x
• Net Cash: around $2 billion

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Why NIO’s Best Quarter Still Sent the Stock Lower

NIO (NIO) reported second-quarter revenue of RMB 32.1 billion ($4.74 billion) on September 1, up 69% from a year earlier, on 107,658 deliveries, up 49%. Vehicle margin climbed to 18.5% from 10.3%, and the company posted its third straight quarter of adjusted operating profit, although it still recorded a GAAP net loss of RMB 528 million ($78 million).

NIO ended the quarter with RMB 56.7 billion ($8.4 billion) in cash and deposits, and management said operating and free cash flow were both positive.

The shares fell anyway, and they now trade near their 52-week low. Battery and memory chip costs added around RMB 14,000 per vehicle in the quarter, management expects another RMB 2,000 to 3,000 in the second half, and it guided vehicle margin flat from here.

It’s worth noting that revenue missed the low end of NIO’s own guidance, and J.P. Morgan downgraded the stock on September 2 with a $4.50 target.

Delivery guidance leaves little slack, since a third-quarter outlook of 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles means September must reach at least 36,230 after July and August came in at 35,934 and 35,836. XPeng delivered 39,107 vehicles in August, and its shares fell about 13% over the same month against NIO’s 25%. Analysts still expect strong growth from here, and the revenue chart below shows how much.

Estimates have revenue growing from RMB 87 billion in 2025 to around RMB 128 billion this year, an increase of around 47%, and to around RMB 153 billion in 2027, before growth slows to low single digits by 2029.

The company’s enterprise value is around 0.4 times next-twelve-month revenue, which shows how doubtful investors are that this growth will turn into profit.

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What Wall Street Still Sees After the Selloff

Analyst targets sit far above the stock. Of the 24 analysts covering NIO, 17 rate it Buy or Outperform, six say Hold and one says Underperform, and even the lowest target, around $3.90, sits above the recent close. The Street targets table below shows the mean target of around $6.30 and how the gap has widened since June.

The mean target has slipped about 14% since June while the shares have fallen about 29%, so the distance between them has grown.

Morningstar cut its fair value to $6.00 from $6.50 and calls the stock undervalued at 0.7 times 2027 sales, although it considers management’s goal of 40,000 monthly deliveries in the fourth quarter too optimistic given diminishing subsidies.

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Should You Buy NIO Stock?

The bull case is that NIO has begun turning growth into better economics, with vehicle margin at 18.5%, the ES8 and ES9 running above 20% with waits of more than three months on some ES9 variants, and around $2 billion of net cash to fund the ramp, while third-quarter revenue is guided up 53% to 56%.

The bear case is that costs are rising faster than the company can offset them, growth is expected to fade after 2027, and the third-quarter delivery guide leaves almost no cushion, with September numbers due around October 1. NIO also still loses money on a GAAP basis.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!