Key Stats for NIO Stock
- Current Price: $3.47
- Street Target (Mean): ~$6.30
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What Happened?
NIO (NIO) has posted three straight quarters of adjusted net profit, yet the stock is down about 32% in 2026. Shares closed at $3.47 on October 12, about 3% above TIKR’s 52-week low of $3.36. Those profits are shrinking fast. According to the company’s investor relations materials, adjusted net profit, which excludes share-based compensation, fell from RMB 726.8 million in Q4 2025 to RMB 43.5 million in Q1 and RMB 26.1 million in Q2. On a GAAP basis, NIO lost about RMB 0.5 billion in Q2.
The 3.07% drop on October 12 came after a Bloomberg report over the October 10 to 11 weekend that the EU plans a first-year cap of 350,000 hybrid imports. The plan targets Chinese hybrid sellers such as BYD (1211) and Chery. It still needs EU leaders’ approval, and no source has tied NIO’s move to it. NIO sells only battery-electric cars, which already face separate EU duties set in October 2024. The bigger problem is volume.
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NIO’s Q4 Delivery Goal Sits Below Last Year’s Q4
On the September 1 call, management targeted more than 40,000 deliveries a month in Q4. The floor of that goal, about 120,000 vehicles, is roughly 4% below the 124,807 NIO delivered in Q4 2025. Analysts expect Q4 revenue to grow less than 2%.
At that floor, 2026 deliveries would reach about 420,000, up around 29%. That falls short of the 40% to 50% annual growth management cited as its mid- to long-term goal. September deliveries of 37,408 rose just 7.7%, so October needs about 7% more cars to get on pace.
Slower volume puts more pressure on margins. Q2 vehicle margin rose to 18.5% from 10.3% a year earlier. Management said input costs in Q2 ran about RMB 14,000 per car above late 2025 levels, and it expects another RMB 2,000 to 3,000 in the second half. To hold margins, it leans on the ES8 and ES9, which each carry a vehicle margin above 20%.
Q2 itself fell short. Revenue grew 69.1% to RMB 32.14 billion but missed consensus by 3.43%. Deliveries of 107,658 missed the 110,000 to 115,000 guidance, and shares fell 4.02% on September 1. JPMorgan then downgraded the stock to Neutral and cut its target to $4.50 from $7, citing slow demand.
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Analysts See Upside the Market Won’t Price Yet
- Street Target (Mean): ~$6.30 (about 80% above the October 12 close)
- Street Target (Low): ~$3.90
- Analyst Ratings: 11 Buy, 5 Outperform, 6 Hold, 1 Underperform
- 2027 EBIT (Consensus): ~RMB 1.3 billion
- Free Cash Flow (Consensus): ~RMB 2.3 billion in 2026, ~RMB 8.1 billion in 2027
- NTM EV/Revenue: ~0.4x
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NIO trades at about 0.4 times NTM enterprise value to revenue. That is down from about 1.4 times at the end of September 2025 and below BYD at 0.7 times, GM (GM) at 0.9 times, and Ford (F) at 1.0 times. Part of that discount is earned: analysts cut their 2026 revenue estimate by about 6% between June 30 and September 30.
Cash flow is the strongest counterpoint. Chief Financial Officer Stanley Qu said “our positive operating cash flow grew substantially, and we achieved positive free cash flow.” Management expects operating and free cash flow to stay positive in Q3 and Q4. Consensus sees free cash flow rising roughly 3.5 times in 2027, alongside a full-year operating profit.
October Deliveries Are the First Test
NIO reports October deliveries in early November. A figure at or above 40,000 would put the Q4 goal within reach and support the margin gains. Another month near September’s 37,408 would leave both the goal and the growth behind analysts’ targets in doubt.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
