Key Stats for MercadoLibre Stock
- Current Price: $1,892.44
- Target Price (Mid): ~$6,290
- Street Target: ~$2,270
- Potential Total Return: ~232%
- Annualized IRR: ~33% / year
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What Happened?
MercadoLibre (MELI) closed at $1,892.44 on October 12, 2026. That is 9.5% above its September 30 close, a gain that followed a rally in Brazilian assets set off by Brazil’s first-round presidential vote. Brazil supplied 52.6% of the company’s 2025 revenue, so the stock moved with the country.
Whether to sell into that gain or add to it depends less on the October 25 runoff than on the margin and credit trends management laid out in its Q2 2026 investor relations materials.
A Re-Rating, Not an Upgrade
Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16% on October 4. The next day, the Ibovespa closed at a record 206,912, up 7.7%, with Brazilian banks leading the rally. MercadoLibre was a secondary beneficiary, trading nearly 8% higher in the October 5 morning session. A Datafolha poll on October 8 showed Bolsonaro ahead 49% to 45%, still a technical tie.
The gain came from the multiple. MercadoLibre’s NTM P/E ratio rose from about 41x on September 30 to about 45x on October 12, while consensus NTM EPS held at around $42. Investors are paying more for the same forecast.
The Street is less enthusiastic than the stock price. Between September 30 and October 12, hold ratings rose to six from four out of 26 analysts; the full split is 16 Buy, 4 Outperform, and 6 Hold. The mean target of around $2,270 sits about 20% above the current price.
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Lower Rates Would Help, but Only a Little
Lower Brazilian policy rates were already on analysts’ minds before the vote; HSBC’s Neha Agarwala asked about them on the Q2 call. In reply, Osvaldo Giménez, President of Fintech, said credit and acquiring prices reset with policy rates, so the benefit there is marginal.
The Marketplace gains slightly more, because the company does not reprice its interest-free installment plans as often. CFO Martin de los Santos added: “The Marketplace, typically, when interest rates come down, we improve a little bit margins.”
A little is the right size. The Q2 EBIT margin was 6.72%, down from 12.15% a year earlier. The company attributes the decline to deliberate investment, including lower seller take rates in Brazil and higher device costs in acquiring. Rates alone will not close that gap.
Credit is the bigger swing factor. Giménez said that “so far, we are not seeing any deceleration or deterioration of credit book in Brazil.” Non-performing loans 15 to 90 days past due sat at 7.0% for the portfolio and 4.6% for credit cards, both near historical lows. The caveat is that loans more than 90 days past due rose in Q2. Management tied that to one product whose early borrowers defaulted above expectations before issuance slowed.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $1,892.44
- Target Price (Mid): ~$6,290
- Potential Total Return: ~232%
- Annualized IRR: ~33% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for MercadoLibre stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR model’s mid case, its central scenario, values MercadoLibre at around $6,290 by December 31, 2030. That is a total return of around 232%, or about 33% a year over 4.2 years. It is a scenario, not a forecast, and it sits roughly 2.8 times above the Street’s mean target of around $2,270.
For context, Street consensus, which is separate from the model, expects revenue to grow from around $42 billion in 2026 to around $98 billion in 2030. The main risk is that the margin recovery behind that growth keeps slipping.
On the upside, the Street’s high target of $2,800 sits about 48% above the current price. On the downside, the Street’s low target of $1,750 sits about 8% below it.
Conclusion
Before October 25, the premium added since September 30 is a bet on politics. The case to load up rests on the Q3 report, which, as of October 13, had not been scheduled; third-party calendars point to late October or early November. Consensus calls for Q3 EBIT of around $707 million, down about 2% from a year earlier.
A print at or above that, with 15-to-90-day NPLs holding near 7%, would make the long-term model case easier to own whoever wins in Brazil. A miss alongside rising late-stage delinquencies would leave October’s gain resting on politics alone, which argues for trimming rather than adding.
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So what is MercadoLibre stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
