Key Takeaways:
- Nasdaq is evolving from a traditional exchange operator into a diversified financial technology and data powerhouse serving global capital markets.
- NDAQ stock could reasonably reach $124 per share by December 2028, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 39.7% from today’s price of $88, with an annualized return of 12.2% over the next 2.9 years.
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is building on its role at the center of global markets while expanding deeper into high‑margin technology, data, and anti‑financial crime solutions that support banks, asset managers, and corporates worldwide.
The company operates across Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services, so it benefits from both trading activity and long-term demand for market infrastructure, regulatory technology, and data analytics.
Shares currently trade around 52‑week highs after a steady climb, as investors digest record results, robust efficiency metrics, and a growing pipeline of events and capital markets activity that could sustain earnings growth into 2026.
Here’s why Nasdaq stock could provide solid returns through 2028 as it scales its platform, improves profitability, and maintains its position as a critical utility for global markets.
What the Model Says for Nasdaq Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Nasdaq stock using valuation assumptions tied to its consistent revenue growth, strong margins, and premium but stable trading multiples.
Based on estimates of 8.3% annual revenue growth, 57.4% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 22.8x, the model projects Nasdaq stock could rise from $88 to $124 per share.
That would be a 39.7% total return, or a 12.2% annualized return over the next 2.9 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Nasdaq stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 8.3%
Nasdaq has delivered solid top-line expansion in recent years, with a 3‑year revenue CAGR of 13.6% as it integrated acquisitions and grew recurring technology and anti‑financial‑crime solutions.
Forward-looking estimates point to a more moderate but still healthy 8.4% revenue CAGR over the next two years, supported by secular demand for data, regulatory reporting, and risk management tools rather than only cyclical trading volumes.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use an 8.3% annual revenue growth assumption, which aligns closely with these forward estimates and reflects a scenario where Nasdaq continues to grow across data, indices, and cloud‑based platforms while maintaining its core market services franchise.
2. Operating Margins: 57.4%
Nasdaq already operates with strong profitability, reporting a last‑twelve‑month EBIT margin of about 30.2% and high‑60s gross margins, which highlight the scalability of its data and technology offerings.
As higher‑margin software and SaaS revenue becomes a larger share of the mix and integration synergies from acquired platforms such as Verafin and Calypso flow through, analysts expect structurally higher operating leverage over time.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we apply a 57.4% operating margin in the model’s forecast period, consistent with the guided valuation inputs, to capture the effect of a more technology‑ and data‑driven business mix on Nasdaq’s earnings power.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 10x
Nasdaq currently trades at an NTM P/E of around 22.8x, a premium to the overall market that reflects its role as a mission‑critical infrastructure provider and its growing recurring revenue base.
The stock’s valuation is further supported by high returns on equity of 15.3% and return on invested capital near 10.7%, along with a 1.3% dividend yield and disciplined balance‑sheet management at 2.73x net debt to EBITDA.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we hold the exit multiple at 22.8x, implying that investors continue to value Nasdaq as a stable, high‑quality compounder rather than assigning either a substantial re‑rating or de‑rating by 2028.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for NDAQ stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on market conditions, technology adoption, and the pace of earnings growth from its platforms (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Revenue growth, margins, and the exit multiple all come in below expectations → 5.6% annual returns
- Mid Case: Nasdaq executes near current forecasts and maintains today’s multiple as tech and data platforms scale → 10.1% annual returns
- High Case: Stronger adoption of Nasdaq’s technology solutions and resilient market activity drive faster earnings growth → 14.2% annual returns
Even in the low‑case scenario, Nasdaq’s model still shows positive returns, supported by its resilient business model, recurring technology and data revenue, and strong cash generation, though the opportunity would appear less compelling relative to alternatives if growth underperforms.
See what analysts think about NDAQ stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Nasdaq Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
