Key Takeaways:
- Autodesk is a leading design and make software company that provides 3D design, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media tools used by architects, engineers, product designers, and content creators worldwide.
- ADSK stock could reasonably reach €366 per share by December 2030, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a potential total return of 50.3% from today’s price of $243, with an annualized return of 10.7% over the next 4.0 years.
Autodesk (ADSK) is a leading design and make software provider across architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media, and it continues to benefit from the shift toward cloud‑based, subscription workflows.
The company’s flagship products, including AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion, Maya, and 3ds Max, anchor mission‑critical workflows for engineers, architects, and content creators, so renewal rates and pricing power remain resilient.
ADSK shares delivered a roughly 20.9% total return over the past year despite trading below their 52‑week high of $329, reflecting both solid fundamentals and some volatility in software valuations.
Here’s why Autodesk stock could provide attractive returns through 2028 as it scales recurring revenue, expands margins, and maintains leadership across design and make software.
What the Model Says for Autodesk Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Autodesk stock using valuation assumptions based on its durable subscription base, strong operating margins, and a reasonable normalization of its P/E multiple over time.
Based on estimates of 12.8% annual revenue growth, 38.4% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 20.3x, the model projects Autodesk stock could rise from $243 to $313 per share by December 2028.
That would be a 28.7% total return, or a 13.5% annualized return over the next 2.0 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Autodesk stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 12.8%
Autodesk has delivered solid top‑line momentum, with a three‑year revenue CAGR of 11.8% as customers adopt its subscription offerings and expand usage across design and make workflows.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 12.8% annual revenue growth assumption through January 2028, which sits close to near‑term consensus expectations and remains grounded in recent execution.
This growth rate reflects steady expansion rather than a re‑acceleration, as Autodesk scales its ARR base while balancing macro uncertainty and enterprise software budget dynamics.
2. Operating Margins: 38.4%
Autodesk already operates with strong profitability, as shown by its LTM EBIT margin of 24.1% and high returns on invested capital, and management continues to focus on efficiency and operating leverage.
Over the last three years, EBITDA has grown faster than revenue, which supports the case for margin expansion as the company shifts more workloads to the cloud and consolidates platforms.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 38.4% operating margin assumption by January 2028, which implies continued efficiency gains from scale, pricing, and mix toward higher‑margin subscription and cloud services.
This level remains consistent with Autodesk’s historical ability to expand margins while investing in product innovation and AI‑driven workflows across architecture, engineering, construction, and media.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.3x
Autodesk stock currently trades at an NTM P/E of about 21.95x and an LTM P/E of 47.26x, reflecting its premium positioning among design and make software providers.
At the same time, the stock’s valuation has compressed from prior peaks as investors reassessed growth software multiples and interest rates moved higher.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we apply a 20.3x exit P/E multiple for January 2028, which is slightly below the current forward multiple and assumes some normalization as the business matures.
This multiple still embeds a quality premium, because Autodesk generates high returns on capital, strong free cash flow, and maintains a leadership position in critical design workflows.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for ADSK stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on how revenue growth, margins, and valuation multiples evolve (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Revenue growth and margin expansion come in at the low end of expectations → 4.5% annual returns
- Mid Case: Growth and margins track the mid‑case assumptions of 10.6% revenue CAGR and 31.3% net income margin → 10.7% annual returns
- High Case: 11.7% revenue CAGR and 32.9% net income margin with a supportive valuation environment → 16.6% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Autodesk stock offers modest positive returns supported by its recurring revenue model, high gross margins, and strong returns on capital, though the low‑case profile would appear less compelling relative to other opportunities.
In the high case, the stock screens as particularly interesting because annualized returns exceed 15%, which would reflect stronger‑than‑expected growth, successful AI‑driven product initiatives, and a constructive environment for quality software valuations.
See what analysts think about ADSK stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Autodesk Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
