Key Stats for Boeing Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 7%
- 52-Week Range: $129 to $254
- Valuation Model Target Price: $446
- Implied Upside: 89% over 2.9 years
What Happened to BA Stock?
Boeing (BA) stock rose 7% over the past week as trading followed late-January earnings results, production updates, certification commentary, and several order and workforce disclosures.
Last week, Boeing reported fourth-quarter revenue of $23.9 billion, adjusted EPS of $9.92, and GAAP EPS of $10.23, swinging to net income of $8.2 billion.
The earnings release reflected a $9.6 billion gain from the Digital Aviation Solutions sale, which materially lifted reported profit despite ongoing operational losses in core segments.
Boeing also disclosed a $565 million charge tied to the KC-46 tanker program, while commercial airplanes and defense segments posted quarterly losses of $632 million and $507 million.
During a January 27 conference call, management said average rework on the 787 declined 30% and confirmed staffing plans for a new 737 line targeting 47 jets monthly.
Management reiterated that certification for the 737-7 and 737-10 is still expected in 2026, while 777X certification flight testing continued without delivery timing changes.
Boeing also said that they expects positive free cash flow of $1 billion to $3 billion in 2026, while noting 737 and 787 cash margins remain pressured.
Meanwhile, last January 29, Boeing disclosed an additional Air India order for 30 737 MAX aircraft and a $262 million expansion of its MH-139A helicopter contract with the U.S. Air Force.
Separately on January 30, Boeing reached a labor agreement with about 1,600 former Spirit AeroSystems white-collar workers, marking its first completed deal following the reacquisition.
In addition, Bloomberg reported Boeing plans to cut around 300 defense supply chain jobs, adding a workforce adjustment to the series of company-specific developments.
Is Boeing Stock Fairly Valued Right Now?
Under the valuation model shown, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth: 10.9%
- Operating Margins: 7.4%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 124.9x
Boeing’s valuation model reflects a business emerging from a multi-year downturn, with revenue growth accelerating to a projected 10.9% CAGR as commercial deliveries normalize through 2028.
Growth in the model is front-loaded, driven by delivery catch-up and backlog conversion, before moderating as production rates stabilize and the recovery matures.
Profitability inflection occurs after prolonged losses, with operating margins improving from deeply negative historical levels to a modeled 7.4% by 2028.
That margin expansion reflects operating leverage from higher aircraft output and reduced rework, rather than aggressive cost cutting or structural margin assumptions.
Cash flow credibility underpins the model, with management guiding toward positive free cash flow beginning in 2026 as deliveries rise and abnormal production costs decline.
While the modeled exit P/E multiple remains elevated, the valuation logic depends on sustained execution and cash normalization rather than further multiple expansion.
At the current share price, Boeing stock appears undervalued because the market pricing implies a more prolonged recovery, while the model reflects improving deliveries, rising margins, and a return to positive free cash flow beginning in 2026.
Overall, the valuation outcome remains execution-dependent, with delivery rates, certification progress, and cash flow conversion determining whether modeled normalization is achieved.
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