Key Stats for Estée Lauder Stock
- Price Change: -19.2% (Post-Earnings Crash)
- Current Price: ~$96.66
- Advanced Model Target: $160
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
What Happened?
Shares of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) crashed 19.2% to close at $96.66 on Thursday, marking one of the worst single-day declines in the company’s history.
Despite reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.89, beating the $0.83 consensus, investors fled the stock after management warned of a **$100 million hit** from new tariffs.
The company raised its full-year sales guidance but cautioned that import tariffs could reach 39% on certain goods, weighing heavily on second-half margins.
Analysts at RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a $113 target, arguing that “the worst is in the past” and the selloff is an overreaction to transient political headwinds.
However, the market punished the stock for missing the “perfect” execution required to justify its recent 40% rally leading up to the print.
Sector peers like L’Oréal (OTC:LRLCY) remained relatively stable, isolating the pain to Estée Lauder’s specific exposure to cross-border trade risks.
Despite the carnage, the company’s “Profit Recovery and Growth Plan” is still delivering, with Adjusted Operating Margins expanding 290 basis points to 14.4% in the quarter.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Estée Lauder stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Estée Lauder Undervalued Today?
In the earnings release, CEO Stéphane de La Faverie focused on the operational turnaround that is gaining traction beneath the tariff noise.
He stated: “We delivered excellent second quarter results… [and] we expect to restore organic sales growth and expand our operating margin for the first time in four years.”
Regarding the tariff impact, management was transparent about the near-term costs but confident in their long-term pricing power.
He noted: “Our second half reflects previously-expected headwinds and now-greater consumer-facing investments… [but] Beauty Reimagined has invigorated our business.”
The leadership team believes that double-digit growth in Mainland China and strong fragrance sales prove the brand equity remains intact despite the macro shocks.
Read the full Estée Lauder Transcript on TIKR to see the Tariff Mitigation Plan >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the post-earnings crash to $96 has created a massive dislocation, offering a significantly wider margin of safety.
- Target Price: $160
- Current Price: ~$97
- Potential Upside: +60%+ (Adjusted for new price)
Valuation Model Deep Dive
The investment case for Estée Lauder has shifted from a “momentum recovery” to a “deep value turnaround” following the tariff-induced reset.
The model suggests that the market is pricing in a permanent impairment from tariffs, ignoring the $160 intrinsic value derived from its long-term cash flows.
- The Fair Value Gap: At $97, the stock is trading deeply below its $160 intrinsic value, potentially offering 60%+ upside if the tariff headwinds prove temporary.
- The Growth Reality: The model assumes a 6.9% Annualized Return, which is now a conservative baseline given the lower entry price.
- The Profitability Check: Despite the tariff hit, the company still delivered a 14.4% operating margin, validating the underlying health of the business.
If Estée Lauder can navigate the tariff landscape and continue its China recovery, the rebound from $96 could be swift and substantial.
Conclusion: A tariff panic has put a prestige asset on sale. With a massive valuation gap and a model pointing to $160, Estée Lauder stock offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors willing to buy when others are selling.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
How Much Upside Does Estée Lauder Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
