Key Takeaways:
- AutoZone continues to expand its automotive parts retail and distribution footprint across the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil while focusing on higher-margin commercial programs and private-label brands.
- AZO stock could reasonably reach $5,337 per share by August 2030, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 43.5% from today’s price of $3,721, with an annualized return of 8.2% over the next 4.6 years.
AutoZone (AZO) is reinforcing its position as a leading specialty auto parts retailer because it keeps investing in its commercial program, supply chain, and technology while returning significant capital to shareholders through buybacks.
The company serves DIY and commercial customers with a broad assortment of maintenance and repair parts, and it benefits from an aging vehicle fleet that supports steady demand for replacements.
In the latest twelve months, AutoZone generated gross margins of 52.1% and an EBIT margin of 18.4%, so it continues to post strong profitability even as it spends on distribution centers and technology.
Management also maintains a leveraged balance sheet with LTM net debt of about $12.0 billion and net debt to EBITDA of 2.56x, but returns on invested capital remain high at 36.5%.
Recent events, including the Q1 2026 earnings call on December 9, 2025, and the 2025 Annual General Meeting on December 17, 2025, kept investors focused on AutoZone’s ability to sustain same‑store sales growth while managing cost inflation.
Here’s why AutoZone stock could deliver moderate but not extraordinary returns through 2030 as it balances steady growth with a premium valuation and ongoing capital returns.
What the Model Says for AutoZone Stock
We analyzed the potential for AutoZone stock using valuation assumptions tied to its consistent revenue growth, high returns on capital, and current market multiples.
Based on estimates of 7.8% annual revenue growth, 18.5% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 20.3x, the model projects AutoZone stock could rise from $3,721 to $4,403 per share by August 2028.
That would be a 18.3% total return, or a 6.8% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for AutoZone stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 7.8%
AutoZone has grown revenues at a three‑year CAGR of 5.2%, while the forward two‑year revenue CAGR is estimated at 7.9%, so the business has been steadily expanding.
Comparable‑store sales, new store openings across the U.S. and international markets, and growth in commercial sales have contributed to this trajectory, and management has continued to invest in distribution and inventory availability.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we apply a 7.8% CAGR revenue forecast through August 2028, which aligns closely with the forward consensus and reflects expectations that AutoZone can keep outgrowing the broader auto parts market.
2. Operating Margins: 18.5%
Over the last twelve months, AutoZone generated an EBIT margin of 18.4%, supported by its high mix of private‑label products, disciplined expense control, and scale in purchasing and distribution.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we assume an operating margin of 18.5%, which is essentially in line with recent performance and indicates that analysts are not baking in major margin expansion or contraction.
Ongoing wage inflation, supply‑chain investments, and technology spending could pressure costs, but AutoZone has historically offset these headwinds with pricing actions and productivity gains, so flat margins look reasonable given past execution.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.3x
AutoZone shares currently trade around 23.9x next‑twelve‑month earnings and 25.9x LTM earnings, so the stock commands a premium to many traditional retailers because of its stable growth and strong returns on capital.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use an exit P/E of 20.3x, which is slightly below today’s multiple and therefore embeds a modest de‑rating as growth normalizes.
This multiple still reflects AutoZone’s durable competitive advantages, including its dense store network, strong commercial relationships, and consistent free cash generation, but it also acknowledges that the company is already well recognized by the market.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for AZO stock through 2031 show varied outcomes based on revenue growth, margins, and the exit multiple (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Revenue grows with 12.4% net income margins and a 5.5% annual change in the earnings multiple → 3.2% annual returns
- Mid Case: Revenue grows at 7.0% CAGR with 13.1% net income margins and a 3.5% annual multiple change → 8.2% annual returns
- High Case: Revenue grows at 7.7% CAGR with 13.5% net income margins and a 1.6% annual multiple change → 12.8% annual returns
Recent events, such as the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings calls, plus AutoZone’s participation in the Gabelli automotive symposium, have helped clarify management’s priorities around store growth, commercial penetration, and capital allocation, and these factors will likely influence which scenario proves closer to reality.
See what analysts think about AZO stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does AutoZone Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
