Key Takeaways
- Elon Musk said Tesla will dismantle the Cybertruck line at Giga Texas around June or July next year for Cybercab, and will refund many truck deposits it can’t fill.
- Gary Black says a two-seat Cybercab has limited opportunity, but he concedes most rides carry one or two people, and Model Y robotaxis can take the groups.
- The bigger risk is speed: Robotaxi ran in six cities in October, against the dozens Musk expected by the end of 2026.
Tesla (TSLA) is handing the Cybertruck’s factory line to a car with two seats, and turning truck buyers away to do it.
Musk posted on X on Nov. 6 that Tesla will be “winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production.” A day later, he said the backlog is “far more than we can make before dismantling the line” and Tesla would add a shift. On Nov. 9, he went further: Tesla “will have to return deposits for a lot of people.”
Gary Black of The Future Fund thinks the bet has a ceiling. Replying to a user who called the two-seat design silly, Black wrote: “I am on record that a two-seat Cybercab will have limited opportunity since it automatically rules out groups of more than two passengers.”
Black Is Counting the Wrong Cars
Black doesn’t dispute the ride data. He agreed most rides carry one or two people, but said bulls were “conflating ride statistics with actual demand,” since less than 0.5% of vehicles sold have two seats.
That’s the wrong yardstick. A family buying one car plans for its biggest trip. A robotaxi network sends whichever car fits the booking: a solo commuter takes a Cybercab, and a group of three or four takes a Model Y. On the Oct. 21 call, AI chief Ashok Elluswamy said Cybercab software will scale to new cities “along with the Model Y robotaxis.”
The catch is cost. ARK Invest projects 20 cents a mile for the Cybercab against 60 cents for a Model Y today, but Tesla hasn’t hit its own 30-cent target. And Black’s point sharpens if Tesla sells Cybercabs to owners, which it aims to start by year-end, though it says most will stay in its own fleet.
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Musk Is Betting on Batteries and People
Musk’s own case isn’t about seats. He wrote that “efficiency improvements coming” will allow a 40kWh Cybercab pack, and Tesla’s third-quarter update says battery availability limits its production ramp. Smaller packs mean more cars.
He added that Tesla has “a very limited number of smart, dedicated people,” and keeping the truck means “we can’t use those people or factory space and machinery for scaling Cybercab.”
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $94.8 billion in 2025 to $146 billion in 2028, with the biggest jump in 2028.
The truck barely registers. The “other models” line that includes it delivered 8,295 vehicles in the third quarter, under 2% of the total.
Tesla Needs More Cities, Fast
Tesla stock traded at 168x forward earnings on Nov. 6, far above its five-year average of 108x.
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $3.24 in 2028, below the $4.07 Tesla earned in 2022. The price counts on Robotaxi profits the estimates don’t show.
And the rollout is behind. In January, Musk expected “dozens of major cities” by the end of 2026. In October, management cited six.
Two Seats Aren’t Tesla’s Problem
Black is right that a two-seater can’t carry everyone, but a Model Y can take groups of three or four. What Tesla needs at 168x is a much wider Robotaxi rollout, with the Cybercab moving beyond Austin, starting with Dallas, which management targeted for November.
Musk expects Robotaxi revenue to be noticeable by the second quarter of 2027, just as the truck line comes out. If it’s late, Tesla will have refunded truck buyers to make room for a car still looking for riders.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
