Key Takeaways
- Micron Technology shares are down 29% from their June high after a two-day sell-off on reports of progress at Chinese memory maker CXMT.
- Rosenblatt Securities reiterated its Buy rating and $1,900 price target on Oct. 13, 103% above today’s price.
- Consensus earnings estimates for fiscal 2027 rose from $156.52 to $176.15 a share over the past month, and the stock traded at 5.6x forward earnings at Monday’s close.
- The numbers back the call: the target implies 10.8x forward earnings, well below the stock’s five-year average of 30.1x.
Micron Technology (MU) is down 29% from its June high after a two-day sell-off over competition from China. Rosenblatt Securities isn’t flinching: on Oct. 13, it reiterated its Buy rating and $1,900 price target, 103% above today’s price.
China rattled the memory trade
Shares had already drifted since peaking on June 25, even through a record fiscal fourth quarter.
Then on Monday, Oct. 12, news that China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) had reportedly made progress on new memory designs sent Micron down 3.9%.
The selling spread across memory stocks on Tuesday after Elon Musk said Chinese memory chip makers are catching up.
Rosenblatt is betting on tight supply
Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy raised his target to $1,900 from $1,500 on Oct. 1, after Micron’s results, and called the quarter an “anticipated beat-and-raise quarter.” His case, according to the firm: memory supply stays tight enough to keep prices high, gross margins keep widening through fiscal 2027, and Micron throws off more than $100 billion of free cash flow that year.
Micron’s own numbers tell a similar story. The company generated $33.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow in the fiscal fourth quarter alone, and CFO Mark Murphy said the fiscal first quarter’s would be “significantly higher.” Since then, Micron has raised its buyback authorization to $35.16 billion, with repurchases starting Dec. 9, which is the bigger buyback TIKR asked about on Oct. 5.
Does $1,900 add up?
The consensus target has climbed from $199 a year ago to $1,561 today…
Rosenblatt sits above that average but well below the Street-high $3,000, which D.A. Davidson set on Oct. 7. And 45 of the 49 ratings are Buy or Outperform, with no Sell left.
The earnings estimates are moving even faster. Consensus for fiscal 2027 is $176.15 a share, up from $156.52 a month ago, and fiscal 2028’s is $206.33, against the $75.52 Micron earned in fiscal 2026…
With most of Micron’s calendar 2027 HBM supply already sold at higher prices, I don’t expect a report on a rival’s designs to pull those numbers down.
That leaves the stock at 5.6x forward earnings at Monday’s close, against a five-year average of 30.1x (inflated by the last downturn, when earnings nearly vanished)…
Rosenblatt’s $1,900 works out to 10.8x the $176.30 a share analysts expect over the next twelve months. That’s nearly double Monday’s multiple, but about a third of the stock’s own average.
The numbers back Rosenblatt
Supply is where this story could turn. Micron plans to raise its own capex in fiscal 2027, and a CXMT that catches up would add even more to the pile. It’s worth remembering how thin things looked not long ago, when Micron earned just $1.30 a share in fiscal 2024.
Still, the numbers back this call. Estimates are climbing, the ratings are near-unanimous, and the target asks for a multiple well below the stock’s own history. To get there, investors only have to believe the fiscal 2027 earnings show up.
The first test is Micron’s fiscal first-quarter report, against guidance of $61.5 billion in revenue and $38.15 in earnings per share.
So what is Micron stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Micron could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
