Key Stats for Carvana Stock
- Current Price: $59.51
- Target Price (Mid): ~$107
- Street Target: ~$82
- Potential Total Return: ~79%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
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What Happened?
Carvana (CVNA) closed at $59.51 on October 12, 2026, down 6.61% and about 9% above its 52-week low of $54.46. No company announcement accompanied the drop. One market report tied the selling to profit-taking and unit-economics worries ahead of third-quarter results, due after the close on October 28.
Carvana’s investor relations materials guide to more retail units in Q3 than in Q2, assuming a stable environment, and to full-year adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion. Analysts have already moved past the middle of that range.
The Street Is Already Modeling the Top Half of Guidance
Carvana booked $1.441 billion of EBITDA in the first half. Analysts expect about $795 million in Q3 and about $710 million in Q4, which puts the full year near $2.95 billion. The guidance midpoint of $2.85 billion implies about $1.41 billion in the second half, while the Street models about $1.5 billion.
The cushion behind that bar has thinned. Q2 EBITDA of $769 million beat consensus by 0.71%, the smallest of Carvana’s four beats over the past five quarters, which ran as high as 8.33%. Matching guidance may not be enough on October 28.
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Two Levers Jenkins Described in August
At J.P. Morgan’s auto conference on August 12, Chief Financial Officer Mark Jenkins pointed to where second-half profit could come from.
The first lever is loan pricing. In Q2, Carvana passed more than 100 basis points of rate back to customers, and other gross profit per unit fell by nearly $200. J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta noted that Carvana had raised Prime loan rates that morning. Jenkins called the timing deliberate: “making big moves, multiple big moves at the same time, I think we have a little bit of pull against that.”
The second lever is reconditioning. Carvana added 16 facilities to a base of 18 between mid-2024 and late 2025, which raised costs and held throughput below target. Labor efficiency has since normalized, Jenkins said, but “we still have room to further increase production growth and further normalize mix.” On October 6, Carvana announced reconditioning capabilities at ADESA Orlando.
Neither lever is a reported result yet. Q3 is the first quarter to include the higher Prime rates.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $59.51
- Target Price (Mid): ~$107
- Potential Total Return: ~79%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid-case scenario values Carvana at around $107 by December 31, 2030. That is a ~79% total return, or about 15% a year over 4.2 years. The scenario rests on volume growth and operating leverage: analysts see revenue rising from $20.32 billion in 2025 to about $36 billion in 2027.
The shares trade at about 14 times next-twelve-months EV/EBITDA, the lowest of TIKR’s six readings since September 2025.
The main risk is a Q3 that meets guidance but falls short of the Street’s higher bar. On a 12-month basis, the 21 analysts with targets average ~$82, with a low of $60. Ratings split 10 Buy, 6 Outperform, 7 Hold, and 1 Sell.
Conclusion
Q3 EBITDA near $795 million keeps pace with the Street. The full-year guide matters more. A range lifted toward $2.95 billion or higher would confirm the consensus. A reaffirmed $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion would leave analysts above the company’s midpoint going into Q4.
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So what is Carvana stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!