Key Takeaways
- Micron could hit $1,700 within 18 months. That’s Phil Rosen’s summary of his interview with Trivariate Research founder Adam Parker.
- Parker argues that the bears who keep calling Micron cyclical keep being wrong, and analysts’ estimates back him up for now.
- Analysts expect Micron’s earnings per share to more than double in fiscal 2027, and SK hynix expects memory demand to outrun supply through 2030.
- $1,700 is about 8x what analysts expect Micron to earn in fiscal 2028, so the target looks reasonable if the shortage lasts. Micron’s fiscal first-quarter report, expected around the fourth week of December, is the next test.
Micron Technology (MU) could hit $1,700 within 18 months, if Trivariate Research founder Adam Parker is right. That’s about 103% above where the stock trades today, at roughly $836.
Parker, formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist, made his bull case in an interview with Opening Bell Daily co-founder Phil Rosen. Rosen summed it up in a post on X on October 29:
“Micron could hit $1,700 in the next 18 months and the bears will be proven wrong once again.”
The timing fits. SK hynix (SKHY) reported a record third quarter on October 28, its US-listed shares jumped by double digits that day, and Micron climbed 5% on the results.
The Bears Keep Getting Micron’s Earnings Wrong
Parker’s point is that the bears keep calling Micron cyclical while its numbers blow past what they expected. Two years ago, Rosen notes, Wall Street expected Micron to generate about $6 billion of free cash flow.
Analysts now see Micron’s earnings climbing for at least two more years. They expect $176.50 a share in fiscal 2027, more than double fiscal 2026’s $75.52.
The cash is showing up, too. Micron’s free cash flow went from $120 million in fiscal 2024 to $59.0 billion in fiscal 2026.
Analysts expect $142.9 billion in fiscal 2027 and $175.6 billion in fiscal 2028.
A good chunk of that demand is already locked in. On its fiscal fourth-quarter call, management said more than 75% of Micron’s 2027 output is committed, and that its 26 multi-year take-or-pay agreements cover more than 35% of revenue through 2030.
Micron’s biggest rival sees the same thing. SK hynix said it expects memory demand to outstrip supply through 2030, and its long-term agreements with 14 major customers already cover more than half of its planned 2027 and 2028 production.
TIKR Tracks 49 Analysts on Micron. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Micron, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Micron’s Analyst Ratings
$1,700 Is Only About 8x Micron’s Earnings
Micron trades at about 4x forward earnings. That’s lower than at any quarter-end in the past five years and close to its 2017 and 2018 readings, near the peak of that memory cycle. Investors are pricing today’s earnings as a peak that won’t last.
Now run Parker’s target against the estimates. Analysts expect Micron to earn $207.76 a share in fiscal 2028, the year in view 18 months from now. Divide $1,700 by that and you get about 8x, still below the roughly 10x median Micron has traded at over the past 12 years.
The Street isn’t far behind him, either. Its average price target is $1,562.
Analysts Already See Micron’s Fade Coming
Memory has always been cyclical, and the last downturn was brutal. Micron’s gross margin fell from 45.2% in fiscal 2022 to 2.7% in fiscal 2023.
New capacity is the risk this time. Micron, its rivals and China’s CXMT are all adding supply in 2027 and 2028, and Elon Musk said a fast Chinese ramp would make 2028 “a different story.” Analysts already pencil some of that in: consensus has Micron’s gross margin falling from 87.0% in fiscal 2027 to 65.5% in fiscal 2030.
Why Micron Can Get to $1,700
Micron gets to $1,700 if fiscal 2028’s estimates hold and investors pay about 8x for them, roughly double today’s 4x. Even then, it would trade below its usual multiple. With most of 2027 committed and SK hynix booked deep into 2028, I’d bet on the shortage lasting longer than the stock’s multiple assumes.
That’s still a big if for 2028. The first read comes around the fourth week of December, when Micron is expected to report its fiscal first quarter. Management guided to $61.5 billion of revenue and a gross margin of about 86%, which it called the floor for fiscal 2027. Anything below that would say the fade is arriving early.
So what is Micron stock actually worth?
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