Key Takeaways
- Rivian rose 15% in a week on a third-quarter beat, a higher delivery outlook and two upgrades to Buy.
- Four firms cut their targets, and Bank of America kept its Sell.
- The car business posted an $80 million gross loss, though management expects to exit 2026 at a gross profit.
- Rivian has $5.5 billion of cash against -$1.12 billion of third-quarter free cash flow.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock rose 15% in the week to Nov. 2, closing at $13.19, after two firms upgraded it to Buy on early R2 demand.
Uber Technologies (UBER) will invest another $250 million in Rivian if it hits an autonomy milestone. Rivian’s third-quarter deliveries rose 46%, while deliveries at Tesla (TSLA) fell 2% and at Lucid Group (LCID) fell 7%. The R2 also goes straight at Tesla’s Model Y.
The R2 is selling
Revenue rose 38% to $2.16 billion on a record 19,248 deliveries, above the $2.0 billion analysts expected. The R2 outsold the R1 and the commercial vans, and Rivian raised its 2026 delivery guidance to 67,000-70,000 from 65,000-70,000.
The car business still posted an $80 million gross loss, after about $120 million of R2 ramp costs. Management expects to exit 2026 at an automotive gross profit, though not for the fourth quarter as a whole.
Consensus has revenue reaching about $15.5 billion in 2028, close to three times 2025’s $5.39 billion:
Two upgrades, four target cuts
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold on Oct. 30 with a $17 target. He cited better-than-expected order conversion after a roughly 30% slide over three months.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Rivian to Buy on Nov. 2, keeping his $17 target. “Initial R2 demand looks solid,” he wrote.
Not everyone moved up. On Oct. 30, Mizuho cut its target to $10 from $13, Needham to $18 from $23, Cantor Fitzgerald to $16 from $19 and Morgan Stanley to $13 from $14. Bank of America’s Alexander Perry reiterated his Sell rating and $14 target on Nov. 2, even as the stock jumped.
Uber is rooting for the R2
CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters on Oct. 29 that Rivian is “very confident” it will hit Uber’s milestone this year. The bigger prize for Uber is the 10,000 R2 robotaxis it and its fleet partners plan to buy, so watch its Nov. 4 report.
Its rivals are another story. At 486,532 third-quarter deliveries, Tesla has little to fear yet. Lucid’s free cash flow was -$2.91 billion in the first half of 2026, so its Nov. 9 report needs to show how it will fund 2027.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Rivian. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rivian, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rivian’s Analyst Ratings
Cheap, if the margins turn
Rivian traded at 1.6x forward sales at the Oct. 30 close, near its 1.5x three-year low and well under its 2.7x average:
The multiple moved up after the Nov. 2 jump.
Rivian burned $1.12 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter, partly on R2 launch inventory, and its share count is up 18% since the end of 2025. It ended September with $5.5 billion of cash and short-term investments, enough for about five quarters at that burn rate. It also received $1.0 billion from a Volkswagen term loan in October.
The stock trades as if the R2 might stall, while buyers keep showing up; December’s gross profit settles which side is right. Rivian’s Dec. 9 Autonomy and AI Day should show whether the $250 million Uber milestone is on track. The real test comes with fourth-quarter results. December has to show an automotive gross profit, and deliveries need to reach at least 25,193 to meet the guidance floor.
So what is Rivian stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Rivian could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
