Key Takeaways
- Merck and Moderna said intismeran plus Keytruda cut melanoma recurrence or death risk by 42%, with 82.2% of patients cancer-free at two years.
- Merck shares slipped 0.8% to $149 because investors already paid for the win after August’s topline readout.
- Keytruda still drives about half of sales and loses core U.S. patent protection in 2028, while analysts expect just 1.6% annual EPS growth.
- Full ESMO data on October 24 and Q3 results on October 29 will show how much the vaccine story can add.
Merck & Co. (MRK) finally has Phase 3 proof that a personalized cancer vaccine can make Keytruda work better. The stock slipped 0.8% to $149 anyway.
Blame the calendar. Merck and Moderna (MRNA) already said in August that intismeran autogene had hit its main goal in melanoma, and Merck jumped as much as 11% that morning. So Thursday’s numbers confirmed a win investors had already paid for.
Moderna also fell after social media posts flagged a possible early leak of the data. (Not the tidiest way to unveil the first positive late-stage result for an mRNA cancer vaccine.)
The question for Merck holders is bigger than one trial. Can a drug sold alongside Keytruda help cushion the blow when Keytruda’s core U.S. patent expires in 2028?
Twelve points of separation
The topline matched August’s promise, and the detail is now on the table:
- 1,137 patients with resected stage IIB to IV melanoma
- 42% lower risk of recurrence or death versus Keytruda alone
- 82.2% alive and cancer-free at two years, compared with 70% on Keytruda alone
That lines up with the mid-stage study, where the combination cut recurrence or death risk by 49% after five years. Full results come at ESMO on October 24, and investors will look hardest at distant metastasis and any early survival signal.
Moderna President Stephen Hoge said in an August interview that thousands of patients could benefit as soon as next year if regulators approve the vaccine. That timeline matters, because every year of sales before 2028 builds on Keytruda’s watch.
So where did the stock actually react?
Merck’s 76.1% total return over the past year owes a lot to that summer readout, which explains this week’s shrug.
Keytruda needs a running mate
Keytruda still carries Merck. Second-quarter Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex sales rose 5% to $8.37 billion, about half of total revenue of $16.61 billion.
Management then raised 2026 sales guidance to $66.3 billion to $67.3 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $9.30 to $9.45. Gardasil rose only 3% to $1.17 billion.
Intismeran fits the Keytruda problem neatly because doctors give it with Keytruda. Every patient on the combination is also a Keytruda patient, and the EU’s new approval of Keytruda plus Padcev in muscle-invasive bladder cancer works the same way.
Barclays (BCS) analysts expect the vaccine to reach roughly $3 billion in annual melanoma sales by 2035. Merck splits costs and profits with Moderna equally, though, so its share is smaller.
Consensus, meanwhile, expects only modest top-line growth…
A $1.5 billion vaccine share would barely dent a Keytruda franchise running above $33 billion a year.
TIKR tracks 27 analysts on Merck. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Merck, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Merck’s Analyst Ratings
The math after 2028
Consensus has Merck growing EPS just 1.6% a year over the next two years, with EBITDA essentially flat at 0.1%. AbbVie (ABBV), which already survived its own Humira cliff, screens at 27.3% annual EPS growth, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) sits at 3.8%.
Reported earnings look messier still. Merck’s trailing payout ratio stands at 261.5% because acquired pipeline charges pushed the first quarter to an adjusted loss of $1.28 per share.
There is also a fresh legal snag. Halozyme (HALO) won an injunction this month that stops the manufacture and sale of Keytruda’s subcutaneous version in several European markets, and that format anchors Merck’s plan to hold patients once biosimilars arrive.
The market prices those growth gaps very differently.
J&J trades at 23.2x forward earnings and AbbVie at 18.9x, and both come with a clearer growth story than Merck today.
My take: Intismeran is a real asset and a smart fit, since it keeps Keytruda in the regimen. Still, a shared $3 billion opportunity by 2035 cannot replace a $33 billion drug, so the stock’s next leg depends on Winrevair, Keytruda Qlex conversion and the deals Merck keeps signing.
Q3 results on October 29 are the next checkpoint. Look for Keytruda growth, any Gardasil recovery and early 2027 commentary.
So what is Merck stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
