Key Takeaways
- Lucid stock has lost 64% YTD to $4.07, after Q2 free cash flow came in at -$1.476B and management suspended guidance in May.
- Analysts carry 1 buy, 7 holds, 2 underperforms, and 1 sell.
- The $8 mean target sits 95% above the close, but it has fallen from $18 since December as analysts cut targets to follow the price lower.
- Bolt’s deal for 25,000+ European robotaxis lifted shares 6% on Sept 17, and the stock gave the gain back within days.
Why Lucid Stock Has Lost 64% Since January Despite Two Robotaxi Deals
Lucid Group (LCID) stock has fallen 64% since early January to $4.07, as the EV maker burned $1.476 billion in free cash flow in Q2 and pulled its guidance. Production simply ran far ahead of demand.
Lucid built 5,500 vehicles in Q1 but delivered only 3,093, and that pileup forced more than $200 million in inventory impairments before the CFO suspended guidance on May 5. Q2 brought another $300 million impairment and a gross margin of negative 105%.
So the question shifted from demand to funding. Lucid denied a July 14 report that it was weighing Chapter 11, but new CEO Silvio Napoli tied his own appointment to fresh capital on the August 4 call: “My acceptance of this exciting challenge is based on the clear understanding that financial support is needed to provide the runway to make the company profitable and successful.” Lucid says liquidity stretches “well into 2027,” helped by a $400 million term loan draw on August 24. That buys time. The market is already pricing the next raise.
Quality problems widened the discount. The August 28 recall of 27,185 Air sedans for fire risk covered more cars than the 15,841 Lucid delivered in all of 2025.
Then came Bolt. The September 17 deal targets at least 25,000 Level 4 robotaxis in Europe, and shares jumped 6% to $4.26. But Midsize production at the Saudi factory will not start until the second half of 2027, and Lucid stock slid back to $4.07 by September 25. Investors now price the dilution before the robotaxi revenue.
Analysts Have Cut Lucid Stock’s Mean Target by 56% Since December
Lucid stock carries 1 buy rating, 7 holds, 2 underperforms, and 1 sell. The mean price target of $8 sits 95% above the $4.07 close.
The price opened that gap, and analyst conviction had little to do with it. At the end of 2025, the mean target stood at $18 against an $11 close, a 71% gap. Analysts have cut the mean by 56% since then, while the stock fell 61%, so the gap widened only because the price fell faster.
Coverage is thinning too. Nine analysts publish a target, down from 13 in June 2025, and the $3.50 low target already sits below the price.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
